维持“增持”评级，维持目标价9.49元/股，对应2024 年34.2xP/E、1.65xP/B。公司2024 年前三季度营收/归母净利润54.3/19.7 亿元，同比-4.15%/+1.51%，其中Q3 单季利润6.1 亿元，同比+23.73%；加权平均ROE 同比-0.16pct 至4.24%，略好于预期。公司当前基本面处于上升通道，预计随着存量历史包袱逐步卸下，以及平安赋能下治理改善、经营提效，公司盈利能力有望相对同业继续占优，维持盈利预测（对应24-26E 归母利润分别 22.8、24.9、27.6 亿元），维持“增持”评级，维持目标价9.49 元/股。Introduction to this report:
Profits improved in the first three quarters. It is expected that as historical stock burdens are cleared and operating efficiency is improved, the company's profitability is expected to continue to be superior to its peers and maintain an “increase in holdings” rating.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “overholding” rating and maintain the target price of 9.49 yuan/share, corresponding to 34.2xP/E and 1.65xp/B in 2024. The company's revenue/net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5.43/1.97 billion yuan, -4.15%/+1.51%, of which Q3 profit was 0.61 billion yuan, +23.73% year over year; weighted average ROE was -0.16 pct to 4.24% year over year, slightly better than expected. The company's fundamentals are currently on an upward path. It is expected that with the gradual removal of the historical burden of stock and the improvement of governance and operational efficiency, the company's profitability is expected to continue to be superior to its peers, maintain profit forecasts (corresponding to 24-26E profits of 2.28, 2.49, and 2.76 billion yuan, respectively), maintain an “increase in holdings” rating, and maintain a target price of 9.49 yuan/share.
Improve the quality and transformation of investment business to support performance growth. 1) In terms of business segments, the year-on-year increase in investment business was the main support for the positive increase in performance in the first three quarters. Furthermore, the expansion of the scale of the asset management business combined with the increase in performance compensation calculation also helped improve performance; 2) The growth in the investment business was mainly due to the expansion of fixed income investment assets and the transformation of equity investment, and the return on investment remained the same as in the same period last year. First, fixed income investments are steadily increasing leverage. The financial asset size at the end of the period was +8.2% to 108.9 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. The second is that equity investment increased its high-dividend OCI allocation. The investment scale of other equity instruments at the end of the period was 3.06 billion yuan/1.16 billion yuan in the same period last year. It is expected that the increase in the mid-term dividend ratio will also contribute to Q3 results. The overall return on investment remained flat. The annualized return for the first three quarters was 2.03%, a slight increase of 0.06%.
Fundamentals are on an upward path, and profitability is expected to continue to be superior to peers. The company is a large and medium-sized brokerage firm with wealth management as the core. Currently, it is guided by “increasing profits and increasing value”, and continues to operate and improve efficiency with the power of Ping An Group. Looking ahead, it is expected that factors such as the implementation of historical matters such as the sale of shares in Credit Suisse Securities (China) and the empowerment of management capabilities are expected to continue to lead to the company's performance exceeding that of its peers, and that fundamentals will continue to improve. Furthermore, Ping An of China also holds Ping An Securities and Fangzheng Securities. It is necessary to resolve competition issues in the industry within 5 years and keep an eye on subsequent developments.
Catalysts: Profit release; new developments in resolving competitive issues with Ping An Securities peers.
Risk warning: The equity market fluctuates greatly; there is uncertainty about resolving competition issues with Ping An Securities peers.
