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Earnings Miss: Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 33% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Earnings Miss: Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 33% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

萬華化學集團股份有限公司營收不佳,每股收益低於預期33%,分析師正在調整他們的預測
Simply Wall St ·  10/31 06:12

Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600309) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥51b revenue coming in 4.5% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.93 missed the mark badly, arriving some 33% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

萬華化學集團股份有限公司(SHSE:600309)在最新的第三季度業績中錯過了盈利,令那些過度樂觀的預測師大失所望。結果清楚地顯示了盈利的缺失,公司實現了510億元的營業收入,比分析師預期的低了4.5%。法定每股收益0.93元的表現差強人意,比預期低了33%。分析師們通常會在每次業績後更新他們的預測,我們可以從他們的估算中判斷公司的情況是否有變化,或者是否存在需要關注的新問題。我們已收集到最新的法定預測,以查看分析師是否在根據這些結果更新其盈利模型。

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SHSE:600309 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 30th 2024
SHSE:600309 2024年10月30日盈利與營業收入增長

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Wanhua Chemical Group's 18 analysts is for revenues of CN¥226.6b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 19% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 33% to CN¥6.44. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥227.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥6.64 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

考慮到最新的結果,萬華化學集團的18位分析師目前達成的共識是,2025年的營業收入將達到2266億元人民幣。這將反映出過去12個月裏其營業收入顯著增長19%。預計每股盈利將增長33%,達到6.44元人民幣。在這份盈利報告之前,分析師們此前曾預測2025年的營業收入爲2271億元人民幣,每股盈利爲6.64元人民幣。分析師們似乎在最新的結果後對該企業持稍許消極看法,因爲他們對明年每股盈利數字進行了輕微的下調。

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥101, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Wanhua Chemical Group at CN¥110 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥64.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

也許令人驚訝的是,共識價格目標基本上保持在101億元人民幣,分析師明確表明,預測中的盈利下降不會對估值產生太大影響。然而,從這些數據我們還可以得出其他結論,因爲一些投資者在評估分析師的價格目標時也喜歡考慮估算的差距。目前,最看好的分析師認爲萬華化學集團每股110元人民幣,而最看淡的給出的價格是64.00元人民幣。這些價格目標顯示了分析師在該業務上有一些不同看法,但估計值之間的差異不足以讓我們認爲有些人在賭博成功或徹底失敗。

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Wanhua Chemical Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 15% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 491 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Wanhua Chemical Group is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

當然,另一種看待這些預測的方式是將它們與整個行業進行比較。我們要強調,萬華化學的營業收入增長預計將放緩,預計到2025年底的年增長率爲15%,遠低於過去五年的歷史22%的增長率。將這與該行業其他491家分析師覆蓋的公司相比較,這些公司的營業收入預計每年增長15%。考慮到預測增長放緩,萬華化學似乎將以與更廣泛行業大致相同的速度增長。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

最重要的是,分析師們降低了每股收益預測,顯示在這些業績公佈後,情緒明顯下滑。值得高興的是,營收預測沒有發生實質性變化,業務仍有望同行業整體增長。共識價值目標沒有實質性變化,這表明業務的內在價值沒有隨最新的預估發生重大變化。

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Wanhua Chemical Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

基於這種思路,我們認爲企業的長期前景比明年的收益更加重要。在Simply Wall St,我們對萬華化學截止到2026年的分析師預估有一整套,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Wanhua Chemical Group .

另外,您還應該了解我們在萬華化學發現的2個警告信號。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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