Check Point's Slowing Growth Despite New Products Prompts Analyst Downgrade
Check Point's Slowing Growth Despite New Products Prompts Analyst Downgrade
Given the company's modest growth trajectory, the valuation seems stretched, as per Liani.B of A Securities analyst Tal Liani downgraded Check Point Software Technologies Ltd (NASDAQ:CHKP) from Buy to Neutral and lowered the price target from $205 to $195.
B of A證券分析師Tal Liani將check point軟件技術有限公司 (納斯達克: CHKP) 的評級從買入調降至中立，並將目標價從205美元降至195美元。
On Tuesday, Check Point reported fiscal third-quarter revenue growth of 7% to $635.10 million, almost inline with the analyst consensus estimate of $635.14 million. Adjusted operating margin declined to 43% from 45% the prior year.
上週二，check point報告財務第三季度營業收入增長7%，達到63510萬美元，幾乎與分析師一致預期的63514萬美元持平。調整後的營業利潤率從去年的45%下降至43%。
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Given the company's modest growth trajectory, the valuation seems stretched, as per Liani.
鑑於該公司的溫和增長軌跡，據Liani表示，估值似乎有些高估。
The analyst expected a recovery in billings next quarter despite the quarter's weak billings growth of 5.8% year-over-year, which fell short of the Street's 8.2% expectation.
分析師預期下一季度的開賬將有所恢復，儘管上一季度的開賬增長同比僅爲5.8%，遠低於市場預期的8.2%。
However, his main concern is the overall low growth trajectory despite new products, portfolio additions, and ongoing go-to-market challenges.
然而，他的主要關注點是儘管有新產品、組合增加和持續的市場挑戰，整體增長軌跡仍然較低。
The market seeks visibility toward double-digit growth, but Liani's analysis indicates this is likely for 2025 with a substantial surge in appliance revenue.
市場尋求獲得向雙位數增長的可見性，但Liani的分析顯示，這可能發生在2025年，伴隨家用電器營收的大幅增長。
The analyst noted limited further upside, with the stock up 37% over the last 12 months and trading at 15 times forward EV/FCF with mid-single-digit growth.
分析師指出股價在過去12個月上漲了37%，正以15倍前EV/FCF的價格交易，預期中單位數增長有限的未來增長。
He adjusted our estimates and lowered his price target, now based on 16 times the 2026E EV/FCF multiple, down from 18 times for 2025.
他調整了我們的估算，並將目標價下調，現在基於2026E EV/FCF的16倍倍數，下調至2025年的18倍。
Infinity now contributes 15% of total revenue, supporting some long-term growth resilience, Liani said.
無限現在佔總營業收入的15%，支持一些長期增長的韌性，Liani說。
Management noted weakness in Europe but expected billings recovery in the fourth quarter, projecting 7.1% growth. Despite substantial investment in product updates, such as the Harmony, Infinity, and Quantum lines, and go-to-market efforts, overall growth remains limited to mid-single digits, the analyst flagged.
管理層指出歐洲業務疲軟，但預計第四季度將出現開多情況，預計增長7.1%。儘管在產品更新，如Harmony、Infinity和Quantum系列，以及市場推廣方面進行了大量投資，但整體增長仍然受限於中等個位數，該分析師指出。
This modest trajectory constrains stock upside until the outlook improves, as per Liani.
直到前景改善，這種溫和的軌跡將限制股票的上漲空間，根據Liani的說法。
Checkpoint's revenue splits into product, subscription, and maintenance. In 2025, the analyst expects maintenance revenue to accelerate from ~2% to 3.5% year-over-year, thanks to Infinity-related professional services.
Checkpoint的營業收入分爲產品、訂閱和維護。分析師預計，在2025年，由於與Infinity相關的專業服務，維護收入將從大約2%加速至3.5%同比增長。
Subscription revenue slowed to 11.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, under the Street's 13.0%, while product revenue rebounded 4.1% after last year's declines.
訂閱收入在第三季度同比增速放緩至11.5%，低於街頭的13.0%，而產品收入在去年下降後反彈了4.1%。
To achieve 10% total revenue growth in 2025, product revenue would need to jump from 4% to 20%, which appears infeasible in the current competitive landscape, as per Liani. He instead modeled 1.6% product growth and 5.6% total revenue growth for 2025.
爲了實現2025年10%的總營業收入增長，產品收入需要從4%躍升至20%，在當前激烈競爭的市場格局下似乎是不可行的，根據Liani的說法，他取而代之地對2025年進行了1.6%的產品增長和5.6%的總營業收入增長建模。
Price Action: CHKP stock closed down by 2.24% to $173.89 on Wednesday.
價格走勢：週三，CHKP股票收盤下跌2.24%，報173.89美元。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
