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银河证券:半导体行业周期上行 当前具备配置价值

Galaxy Securities: The semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle and currently has value for allocation.

Zhitong Finance ·  Oct 30 19:43

The semiconductor industry sector has experienced continuous adjustments, with multiple signs indicating an upward trend in the semiconductor industry cycle.

According to the Wise Finance app, Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that the semiconductor industry sector has experienced continuous adjustments, with multiple signs indicating an upward trend in the semiconductor industry cycle. Regarding semiconductor materials, equipment, and packaging sectors, there is currently configuration value, it is recommended to pay attention to semiconductor material companies: Huahaichengke (688535.SH), Jiangsu Yoke Technology (002409.SZ), Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask (688138.SH), Konfoong Materials International (300666.SZ); semiconductor equipment companies: Naura Technology Group (002371.SZ), Tuo Jing Technology (688072.SH), Zhongke Feice (688361.SH); integrated circuit packaging companies: Tongfu Microelectronics (002156.SZ), JCET Group Co., Ltd. (600584.SH), Yongsha Electronics (688362.SH).

The main viewpoints of Galaxy Securities are as follows:

Industry data tracking:

1) Semiconductors: In August 2024, the global semiconductor industry's sales revenue was 53.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, achieving five consecutive months of year-on-year positive growth. In terms of development trends, the U.S. semiconductor industry is growing rapidly, while China's semiconductor industry maintains stable and continuous growth, remaining one of the world's major semiconductor markets. 2) Integrated circuits: In September 2024, China's integrated circuit imports amounted to 35.985 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year; the import quantity was 49.7 billion, a 17% year-on-year increase with a 0.2% decrease from the previous month. 3) Semiconductor equipment: In September 2024, China's semiconductor equipment imports amounted to 4.254 billion US dollars, a 12.1% year-on-year decrease; the number of imports was 5333 units, a 1.4% year-on-year decrease. 4) Memory chips: From April to August 2024, the prices of 64GbNANDFlash and DDR4 stayed at high levels, with the current NAND prices rising by 22.83% compared to the low in mid-2023; DDR4 prices increased by 30.39% compared to the low in mid-2023.

Industry News:

1) Increased competition in the packaging and testing industry: The U.S. plans to invest as much as 1.6 billion US dollars in the development of chip packaging technology. Amid intensifying competition with China, the U.S. government is seeking to maintain a leading position in technology. Intel announced in Peking that it will expand its Intel Chengdu packaging and testing base. Some countries and leading companies are increasing their focus on the packaging and testing industry, leading to potential intensified competition in the sector. 2) Release of multiple new chip products: Mediatek has launched the all-new Tianxian 9400 flagship chip, featuring an advanced 3nm process and second-generation full-core architecture design, along with significantly enhanced GPU and NPU processors, achieving consistently strong high-intelligence, high-performance, high-energy efficiency, and low-power characteristics. The "Xiaolong 8 Extreme Edition" is equipped with the new Qualcomm Fish Orvon CPU architecture, with a 40% increase in GPU performance and a 45% increase in NPU speed.

Sector Tracking:

1) Performance of the semiconductor index in the past month: In terms of the level of price changes, the semiconductor industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 30.05 percentage points, and outperformed the electronic index by 10.2 percentage points. Looking at the specific data, the semiconductor industry index had a price change of 37.09%, the electronic industry index had a price change of 26.89%, and the CSI 300 index had a price change of 7.04%. 2) Performance of the semiconductor index in the past year: In terms of the level of price changes, the semiconductor industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 11.17 percentage points, and the electronic index by 2.24 percentage points. Looking at the specific data, the semiconductor industry index had a price change of 22.45%, the electronic industry index had a price change of 20.21%, and the CSI 300 index had a price change of 11.28%.

Risk warning:

Risks include the semiconductor industry's slower-than-expected recovery, intensification of international trade frictions, risks of technology iteration and product certification falling short of expectations, and risks of production capacity bottlenecks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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