毛利率：2024Q3 公司毛利率为45.44%，同比+1.07pct，环比+0.35pct，货运成本和毛利率环比波动不大。费用率：2024Q3 销售费用率11.64%，同比-1.34pct；管理费用率6.45%，同比+1.33pct；研发费用率2.28%，同比-0.23pct；财务费用率2.65%，同比+1.04pct，财务费用上升有两个原因，一是分红存款减少及美元降息导致利息收入减少，剔除财务费用后2024Q3 的归母净利润同比+1.73%。Revenue rose steadily in the third quarter, and the strategic focus shifted to major chain customers, which is expected to increase next year
The company achieved revenue of 2.093 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, +1.75% year on year; realized net profit of 0.479 billion yuan, 17.83% year on year, net interest rate to mother 22.9%, +3.13pct year on year. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 0.726 billion yuan, +0.17% year over year; net profit to mother of 0.133 billion yuan, -3.62% year over year, net interest rate to mother 18.27%, -0.72 pct year on year. The decline in net profit in the third quarter was mainly due to exchange losses and a decrease in interest income, and operating profit margins remained stable month-on-month. The USD/RMB exchange rate has now recovered from a low point. We expect profit margins to return to normal levels in the fourth quarter, so we maintain our profit forecast for 2024-2026. We expect net profit to be 0.641/0.735/0.844 billion yuan for 2024-2026, yoy +25.5%/+14.6%/+14.9%, corresponding to EPS 1.52/1.75/2.01 yuan. Europe and new expansion regions have maintained a good growth trend. At the same time, the company's strategic focus is on major chain customers, and the increase can be expected. The current stock price corresponds to PE 16.5/14.4/12.5 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Gross margin increased month-on-month, and profit margin levels remained stable after excluding financial expenses
Gross profit margin: 2024Q3's gross margin was 45.44%, +1.07pct year over year and +0.35pct month-on-month. Freight costs and gross margin did not fluctuate much from month to month. Expense ratio: 2024Q3 sales expense ratio 11.64%, -1.34pct year on year; management expense ratio 6.45%, +1.33pct year on year; R&D expense ratio 2.28%, -0.23pct year; financial expenses ratio 2.65%, +1.04pct year on year. There are two reasons for the increase in financial expenses. The first is that interest income decreased due to reduced dividend deposits and US dollar interest rate cuts. After excluding financial expenses, net profit to mother of 2024Q3 was +1.73% YoY.
Rapid expansion of European regional and agency revenue, continuing to promote smart products and chain customers
By region: 2024Q3 sales in the US declined slightly, mainly due to delays in order delivery due to the relocation of the largest ODM customer warehouse. The situation returned to normal at the end of September, and the situation is expected to improve in Q4. Sales in Europe increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 35.63% in Q3. European subsidiaries successfully corrected, and agent revenue reached 29.5 million yuan in Q3 and 35 million yuan from January to June, maintaining a high growth rate. Smart products: The French fries robot has received good customer feedback and is still undergoing performance testing. Customer DHC has made great progress, and new products such as coffee machines and ice cream machines are progressing according to plan. Chain customers: The company plans to strengthen the development of the restaurant chain market and develop corresponding sales strategies to increase market penetration. It is expected to achieve a certain breakthrough in the chain market within the next three years.
Risk warning: New product marketing progress falls short of expectations; rising shipping prices, raw material prices, etc.
