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Rate Cuts Should Provide Upside For Bank Of Indonesia: Maybank IB

Rate Cuts Should Provide Upside For Bank Of Indonesia: Maybank IB

減息應爲印度尼西亞銀行帶來上行潛力:馬來亞銀行投資銀行
Business Today ·  10/30 16:14

Maybank IB keeps its Buy call on Bank Of Indonesia with a TP of IDR6,100, based on a target 1.3x FY25E P/BV. According to Maybank the interest rate cuts should ease funding cost pressure providing upside to the outlook for BBNI's margins.

Maybank Ib維持對印尼銀行的買入建議,目標價爲6,100印尼盾,基於1.3倍FY25E的P/BV。根據馬來亞銀行的觀點,利率下調有望緩解資金成本壓力,爲BBNI的利潤前景帶來正面影響。

The house feels BBNI's continued efforts to improve asset quality, Maybank IB expects steady improvement in NIM and credit costs, and consequently a gradual expansion in ROE. Downside risks to our call include: 1) opex rising sharply; and 2) loan quality worsening.

該機構認爲BBNI持續努力改善資產質量,馬來亞銀行預計NIM和信貸成本將穩步改善,進而逐漸提高ROE。我們的看漲存在下行風險,包括:1) 運營支出大幅增加;和 2) 貸款質量惡化。

Earnings in-line; accelerating profit growth
9M24 net profit of IDR16.3t (+4.7% QoQ; +3.5% YoY) achieved 74% of house/consensus FY24E forecasts. Earnings were driven by lower provisions (-19.7% YoY) and higher non-interest income (+14.9% YoY) despite slightly lower net interest income (-5.5% YoY). However, the house sees marginal improvement QoQ in net interest income (+7.1% QoQ) and expect this trend to continue as funding cost pressure should start to subside, providing upside for margins.'

盈利符合預期;利潤增速加快
9M24淨利潤達到16.3萬億印尼盾(環比增長4.7%;同比增長3.5%),達到74%的機構/共識FY24E預測。盈利受到較低準備金(同比下降19.7%)和較高的非利息收入(同比增長14.9%)的推動,儘管淨利息收入略有下降(同比下降5.5%)。然而,該機構看到淨利息收入環比略有改善(環比增長7.1%),預計這種趨勢將繼續,因爲資金成本壓力開始減輕,從而爲利潤率提供增長空間。

Loan growth picks up; increasing leverage
Loan growth started to improve as 9M24 loans grew by 9.5% YoY on the back of strong corporate (+15.1% YoY) and consumer lending (+14.6% YoY). New corporate loan disbursement was mainly to corporates with strong ratings, which should translate into lower credit costs in the future.

貸款增長加快;槓桿率提高
貸款增長開始改善,因爲9M24貸款同比增長9.5%,主要得益於強勁的企業(+15.1%)和消費者貸款(+14.6%)。新的企業放貸主要針對信用評級較高的企業,這將在未來轉化爲更低的信貸成本。

Meanwhile, deposit growth lagged at 3.0% YoY, resulting in LDR of 95.3%. Maybank IB believe higher leveraged loans should improve overall NIM as interest rates trend lower.

與此同時,存款增速滯後,同比增長3.0%,導致貸款存款比(LDR)爲95.3%。馬來亞銀行認爲更高槓杆貸款將提高整體NIM,因爲利率趨勢走低。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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