ZHEJIANG DINGLI(603338):3Q24 NET PROFIT +38% YOY BEAT EXPECTATIONS;US REMAINS THE MOST PROMISING MARKET
ZHEJIANG DINGLI(603338):3Q24 NET PROFIT +38% YOY BEAT EXPECTATIONS;US REMAINS THE MOST PROMISING MARKET
Boom lift target overseas. Dingli targets to deliver a total of 6k units of boom lifts overseas, including 2k units in the US (target unchanged). Overseas revenue from boom lifts will likely exceed scissors lifts for the full year, per our estimate.Zhejiang Dingli's (Dingli) EBIT in 3Q24 grew 20% YoY to RMB672mn, driven by a 38% revenue growth (YoY) that offset the 4.8ppt YoY decrease in gross margin due mainly to an exceptional high base in 3Q23. Reported net profit grew 38% YoY to RMB636mn, helped by an increase in net finance income (FX gains). The results suggest Dingli's strong execution in expanding overseas. In the post- results call, management reiterated the strategy to focus on the US market, where outlook will remain the most promising in 2025E. In the near term, the anti- dumping (AD) results in the US (preliminary duties: down to 9.33% from 31.54%) and EU (from nil to 31.3%) could be released over the coming 1-2 months, which should help remove the overhang. We have left our earnings forecast unchanged. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of RMB75 (18x 2024E P/E, 1SD below the historical average of 31x).
浙江定力（Dingli）在2024年第三季度，EBIT同比增長20%，達到6.72億元人民幣，這主要受到營業收入同比增長38%（YoY）的推動，彌補了毛利率同比下降4.8個百分點的影響，主要是由於2023年第三季度基數異常高。報告顯示淨利潤同比增長38%，達到6.36億元人民幣，受益於淨金融收入（外匯獲利）的增加。這些結果表明定力在擴大境外業務上表現強勁。在發佈結果後的電話會議上，管理層重申了專注美國市場的策略，在那裏的前景將在2025年仍然是最有希望的。在短期內，美國反傾銷（AD）結果（初步徵稅率：從31.54%下降至9.33%），以及歐元區（從零增至31.3%）可能會在接下來的1-2個月內公佈，這應有助於消除後顧之憂。我們沒有改變盈利預測。維持買入評級，目標價不變爲75億元人民幣（2024E市盈率18倍，低於31倍的歷史平均水平1標準差）。
Full consolidation of CMEC in 3Q24. This is the first quarter with full contribution after the consolidation of CMEC, the major US subsidiary. Based on our understanding, revenue in the US was ~RMB1bn in 3Q24, with an estimated net margin of ~10%.
第三季度全面整合 CMEC。這是在整合CMEC美國主要子公司後的第一個完整貢獻季度。據我們了解，第三季度美國的營業收入約爲10億元人民幣，淨利率估計爲約10%。
US sales target unchanged. Dingli maintains the revenue target of US$500mn (~RMB3.5bn) in 2024E for the US market, which implies ~RMB600mn potential sales in 4Q24E. Dingli believes that the incremental impact of a potential increase in tariffs in the case of Trump presidency should be manageable, as the reduction of anti-dumping duties could mitigate the impact.
美國銷售目標不變。定力維持2024年對美國市場的營業額目標爲50億美元（約35億元人民幣），這意味着2024年第四季度預計的潛在銷售額約爲6億元人民幣。定力認爲，在特朗普總統任期下關稅可能會上升的潛在增量影響是可以應對的，因爲減少反傾銷稅的舉措可以緩解其影響。
Boom lift target overseas. Dingli targets to deliver a total of 6k units of boom lifts overseas, including 2k units in the US (target unchanged). Overseas revenue from boom lifts will likely exceed scissors lifts for the full year, per our estimate.
境外剪刀式起重臺車銷售目標。定力計劃在境外交付總共6,000台剪刀式起重臺車，其中包括在美國的2,000台（目標不變）。根據我們的估算，全年境外剪刀式起重臺車的營業收入可能會超過剪刀式升降台。
Product differentiation to mitigate the impact of AD duties in EU. Dingli expects sales in Europe will be relatively stable this year. Dingli will continue to offer differentiated products to increase pricing power, which will enable it to partially pass through the AD duties to the downstream.
產品差異化以緩解歐洲反傾銷稅的影響。定力預計歐洲銷售今年將相對穩定。定力將繼續提供差異化產品以增加定價權，這將使其能夠部分轉嫁下游的反傾銷稅。
Key risks: (1) Further intensified competition in China's AWP market; (2) a slowdown of overseas demand; and (3) higher-than-expected anti-dumping duties in the US and EU.
主要風險：（1）中國AWP市場競爭進一步加劇；（2）境外需求放緩；以及（3）美國和歐洲反傾銷稅高於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
