柿竹园钨矿注入在即，完善钨产业链资源端布局，有望改善公司盈利。9 月4 日，公司发布公告，拟通过发行股份和支付现金的方式收购湖南柿竹园有色金属公司100%股权，标的估值51.9 亿元，拟发行股份支付对价47.9 亿元，现金支付4 亿元。柿竹园公司为五矿集团控股子公司，旗下主要资产为柿竹园钨矿采矿权。2023 年柿竹园公司实现净利润3.61 亿元，2024Q1 实现净利润1.43 亿元，具有较强的盈利能力。Key points of investment:
Event: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. On October 25, the company released its 2024 three-quarter report. The company achieved revenue of 10.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 7.1% year on year, achieved net profit of 0.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.7%, and realized deducted non-net profit of 0.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.6% year on year. Looking at Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 3.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.0% and a decrease of 10.9%; realized net profit to mother of 0.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3% and a decrease of 28.8% month-on-month; and realized deducted non-net profit of 0.06 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year and a decrease of 21.7% month-on-month.
The company's profit declined in Q3 due to increased competition in the industry and rising raw material costs. Since this year, due to environmental inspections, etc., the supply of tungsten concentrate has been limited, and prices have continued to rise. As of October 25, 2024, the price of tungsten concentrate was 0.1405 million/ton, up 14.7% from the beginning of the year. The frequency of price adjustments for the company's products such as hard alloys and refractory metal products lags behind that of upstream tungsten concentrate raw materials. At the same time, due to increased competition in the industry, the profitability of the company's products has declined. In 2024, the company achieved gross profit of 0.505 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, a decrease of 15.1%, a year-on-month decrease of 14.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 pct, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.7 pct; Q3 achieved net profit of 0.059 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%, a decrease of 28.8% month-on-month, and a net interest rate of 1.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 pct, and a decrease of 0.4 pct month-on-month.
The injection of Kakizhuyuan tungsten ore is imminent. Improving the resource-side layout of the tungsten industry chain is expected to improve the company's profits. On September 4, the company announced that it intends to acquire 100% of the shares of Hunan Shizhuyuan Nonferrous Metals Company through the issuance of shares and cash payment. The target valuation is 5.19 billion yuan, the consideration for the shares to be issued is 4.79 billion yuan, and 0.4 billion yuan is paid in cash. Kakizhuyuan Company is a holding subsidiary of Minmetals Group. Its main asset is the mining rights of Kakizhuyuan tungsten ore. In 2023, Kakizhuyuan achieved net profit of 0.361 billion yuan, and 2024Q1 achieved net profit of 0.143 billion yuan, which has strong profitability.
As a tungsten industry platform under the Minmetals Group, Kakizhuyuan Company is expected to improve the resource-side layout of the company's tungsten industry chain and enhance the company's profitability.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's net profit to be 0.292/0.772/0.821 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -39.7%/+164.3%/6.3%, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 45/17/16 times, respectively. The company is a tungsten industry development platform under the Minmetals Group and a leading hard alloy and tool leader in China. The company is currently injecting high-quality tungsten ore from Kakizhuyuan soon, and it is expected that other tungsten ores will continue to be injected in the future, which is expected to greatly increase the company's profitability. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: risk that tungsten ore injection progress falls short of expectations; competition in the hard alloy industry increases risk; risk of a sharp decline in demand in the tool industry.
