November 5th, USA time (Tuesday), the United States will usher in the quadrennial Election Day. The voting situation on this day will determine the future direction of the US politics for the next four years.

As the world's largest economy, the election of future leaders in the USA will undoubtedly attract the attention of the whole world. However, global "onlookers" should be prepared in advance, as there is a high probability that the results of this election will not be announced on election day or the next day, but may take several days to reveal.

So, when will the results of this election be revealed? Upon careful analysis, this might be a very complex question.

Voting times vary among different states in the USA.

Generally speaking, in most states in the USA, vote counting begins immediately after the end of voting on election day. However, due to the vast expanse of the USA spanning multiple time zones, the end times for voting in different states are also different.

This sometimes results in situations where the vote counts in eastern states of the USA have already been announced while some western states have not even finished voting yet.

Here are the closing times of the polling stations in the states of the USA.

Although all states in the USA will hold election votes, according to previous media polls, the election situation in most states can already be predicted in advance. The seven swing states will ultimately determine the direction of the final election results.

The seven swing states are Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Michigan.

From the table above, it can be seen that Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin have later voting end times, meaning their vote counts may be announced later.

The counting rules in different states of the USA are also not the same.

Further complicating the situation are the different counting rules in each state.

For example, before election day, tens of millions of people have already voted early through mail-in voting or in-person voting, while in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, local laws do not allow the early tallying of millions of mail-in ballots before election day. This means that the vote counting progress in these two states will be slower.

Another example is one of the key swing states this time -- Nevada allows mail-in ballots to arrive by 5 p.m. on November 9th at the latest, which means if the state's election results are close, the final tally may not be clear until several days after election day.

Trey Grayson, former chairman of the National Association of Secretaries of State, stated that after election day, the counting time for ballots across the country may vary: "We have 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, and our tallying practices are almost all different."

Grayson suggested that this could mean that "in a very close election, we may almost certainly not know who the president will be, who will control the House of Representatives or the Senate on election night."

The final results may take several days before being revealed.

If in this election, the situation is very one-sided, it is indeed possible to determine the winner the day after election day.

For example, if Trump or Harris could sweep states with a higher number of electoral votes like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia on the East Coast, then we may be able to determine the election results early the day after election day.

However, considering how close the polling situation is in the seven swing states this time, if we refer to the situation in the last election, we need to prepare ourselves mentally: this election may take several days to determine the results.

In the last election, due to the similar situation in the swing states, state officials spent four days counting all the votes: after the voting ended on November 3, it was not until November 7 when the voting results were fully announced in Pennsylvania that Biden officially declared victory.

This time, considering that the poll support rates of Trump and Harris are even closer, the time required for counting votes may be longer.

The voting results may also face challenges.

Adding to the complexity, currently the Republican Party in the USA has filed hundreds of pre-election lawsuits and legal challenges across the country, including questioning the fairness of the election, accusing non-citizens of being allowed to participate in federal elections, etc., which may make the vote counting work even more difficult.

For example, the Republican Party has already initiated a legal challenge in Georgia, demanding that local polling station workers manually count votes (instead of using machines) to ensure the fairness of the count—however, this will undoubtedly significantly reduce the efficiency of the counting work. Currently, the Georgia court is debating the Republican's request, while voting rights organizations warn that if manual vote counting is adopted, it is likely to cause even greater confusion.

Furthermore, even though election day has not officially arrived, many extreme statements and conspiracy theories about the fairness of the election have already emerged on American social media platforms, indicating that the final vote count is likely to be questioned, and may even lead to violent incidents—we have seen this before four years ago.

Election experts say that if people have doubts about the election results, there may be a wave of denial of the election results in countless courts across the USA, triggering a wide range of recounts—which could also delay the formal announcement of the election results.

In addition, in some states, if the election results are very close, it may automatically trigger a recount. Taking Pennsylvania as an example, the state law stipulates that if the difference in total votes between the winner and loser is only 0.5 percentage points, it will automatically trigger a statewide recount.

According to a survey conducted in June this year by the independent research organization World Justice Project, 46% of Republican respondents said that if the Democratic candidate wins, they will not accept the legitimacy of the election results. 14% of Republicans said that if the Democratic candidate wins, they will take action to overturn the election results.

This means that if Trump loses in this presidential election, then whether the Republican Party is willing to admit defeat, and whether the U.S. government can achieve a peaceful transfer of power in January next year, may become a question.

Editor/new