Market Expert Makes 2024 Election Prediction: Did 'World's Most Accurate Economist' Pick Harris Or Trump To Win?
Market Expert Makes 2024 Election Prediction: Did 'World's Most Accurate Economist' Pick Harris Or Trump To Win?
There is one week left in the head-to-head matchup between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to decide who will win the 2024 presidential election.
特朗普概念和副總統賀錦麗之間的正面對決將決定誰將贏得2024年總統大選,還剩一週。
A leading market economist made his prediction on who will win the race.
一位領先的市場經濟學家對誰將贏得這場競賽作出了預測。
What Happened: Economist and market strategist Christophe Barraud has been called "the world's most accurate economist" over the years thanks to his accurate predictions on the U.S. economy.
事件經過:多年來,經濟學家和市場策略師Christophe Barraud因其對美國經濟的準確預測而被譽爲"世界上最準確的經濟學家"。
Bloomberg labeled him the best economic forecaster for the U.S. economy in 11 of the past 12 years.
彭博將他稱爲過去12年中美國經濟最佳預測師。
A 2024 election prediction from the Market Securities Monaco chief economist will likely be closely watched given Barraud's accuracy.
考慮到Barraud的準確性,市場證券摩納哥首席經濟學家對2024年大選的預測可能會受到密切關注。
"Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers' forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: (1) #Trump victory (2) #GOP clean sweep," Barraud tweeted, as reported by the New York Post.
根據《紐約郵報》報道,Barraud在推特上表示,通過觀察不同的指標,如賭注市場、民意調查、選舉模擬預測、金融市場,目前最可能的結果是:(1)特朗普勝利(2)共和黨全面勝利。
Barraud's prediction is that Trump will beat Harris in the head-to-head presidential race and the Republicans will also take full control of Congress, leading the House of Representatives and Senate.
Barraud的預測是特朗普將在正面對決的總統競選中擊敗賀錦麗,而共和黨還將完全控制國會,領導衆議院和參議院。
Under this scenario, Barraud predicts the economy will get a short-term boost and gross domestic product could increase 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025, as reported by Business Insider.
在這種情況下,Barraud預測經濟將會獲得短期提振,國內生產總值可能在2025年增長2.1%至2.3%,據《商業內幕》報道。
Barraud said a Trump win and Congress split between the Republicans and Democrats could see the former president have his domestic economic agenda come under pressure and likely a higher focus on tariffs.
Barraud表示,如果特朗普贏得選舉,並且國會在共和黨和民主黨之間分裂,前總統的國內經濟議程可能受到壓力,關稅政策可能會受到更高關注。
The long-term risk with a Trump win is a soaring deficit, Barraud said.
Barraud表示,特朗普獲勝的長期風險是日益增加的赤字。
Barraud said the economy is likely to grow in the short term with either Trump or Harris leading the way.
Barraud表示,經濟短期內可能會增長,無論是特朗普還是賀錦麗都可能引領這一過程。
Did You Know?
你知道嗎?
- Congress Is Making Huge Investments. Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool
- 國會正在大量投資。藉助我們易於使用的工具,了解他們在2024年選舉之前買入和賣出的股票。
Why It's Important: Election polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, while prediction markets and sportsbook betting odds are showing Trump as a heavier favorite.
爲什麼重要:選舉民調顯示特朗普和賀錦麗之間的競爭激烈,而預測市場和體育博彩賠率顯示特朗普更受青睞。
The prediction by Barraud comes along with one by historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine of the past 10 presidential elections and is predicting Harris will win.
Barraud的預測與歷史學家艾倫·利特曼的預測一致,後者準確預測了過去10次總統選舉中的9次,並預測賀錦麗將獲勝。
With Election Day one week away, investors and voters will soon learn who will take the White House in 2025 and who will have control of Congress.
距離選舉日僅剩一週,投資者和選民將很快了解誰將在2025年入主白宮,誰將控制國會。
DJT Price Action: The growing sentiment from prediction markets and experts like Barraud that Trump will win the election has been helping boost the price of Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ:DJT). Co-founded by Trump, the media company often trades more volatile with Trump events and news cycles such as the 2024 presidential election.
DJt 價格走勢:預測市場和Barraud等專家的日益增強的情緒認爲,特朗普將贏得選舉,有助於推動特朗普媒體與技術集團(納斯達克:DJT)的股價。由特朗普共同創立的這家媒體公司經常隨着特朗普的事件和資訊週期而交易,例如2024年總統選舉。
DJT shares were up 8.76% to $51.51 on Tuesday with the company's market capitalization soaring to more than $10 billion and passing a recent valuation placed on social media platform X. DJT stock is up 45% in the last five days and up over 220% in the last month.
週二,DJt股價上漲8.76%,至51.51美元,公司的市值飆升至100億美元以上,超越了最近對社交媒體平台X的估值。 DJt股票在過去五天上漲了45%,在過去一個月內上漲了超過220%。
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Photo: Andrew Angelov via Shutterstock
照片:通過shutterstock的Andrew Angelov
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。