实现欧洲、美洲配网订单突破，配电出海成长性可期。继2023 年首次突破中东市场后，公司上半年公司在欧洲市场获得配电首单，中标希腊4.66 亿元变压器项目，8 月公司在美洲市场获得配电首单，中标墨西哥0.79 亿元变压器项目。公司充分复用海外用电业务销售体系，依托巴西、印尼、波兰、德国、墨西哥五大海外生产基地，未来配电出海成长性可期。Net profit for the first three quarters was +22% year-on-year, and the revenue growth rate of power equipment and medical businesses both exceeded 20%. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 10.434 billion yuan, +25.14% year over year; net profit to mother of 1.816 billion yuan, +21.91% year over year; after deducting non-net profit of 1.748 billion yuan, +31.32% year over year. The company's gross sales margin for the first three quarters was 36.21%, +2.59pct year on year; net profit margin was 17.47%, -0.51 pct year on year. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue from intelligent electricity distribution increased 26.54% year on year, and medical service revenue increased 21.73% year on year.
Net profit after deducting non-net profit in the third quarter was +30% year-on-year, and gross margin reached a new high. In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 3.436 billion yuan, +23.21% year over month, -13.50% month on month; net profit to mother 0.666 billion yuan, +7.43% year on month, -15.28% month on month; after deducting non-net profit of 0.67 billion yuan, +30.03% year over year and -4.66% month on month. The company's gross profit margin for the third quarter was 39.48%, +0.89pct yoy, +2.27pct month-on-month, net profit margin 19.46%, -2.98pct yoy, and -0.42pct month-on-month.
The company is a leading domestic distribution transformer. Multiple factors drive distribution network investment volume. In 2023, Ningbo Oaks, the holding subsidiary of the company, ranked first in both grid distribution transformer bidding market share. Since 2023, policies related to distribution grid transformation have been implemented intensively. We expect distribution grid investment to usher in a boom cycle driven by multiple factors such as equipment updates, agricultural grid transformation, changes in distribution grid patterns, and boosting domestic demand.
Achieving breakthroughs in European and American distribution network orders, the growth of overseas distribution can be expected. After breaking through the Middle East market for the first time in 2023, the company obtained the first distribution order in the European market and won the Greek 0.466 billion yuan transformer project in the first half of the year. In August, the company obtained the first distribution order in the American market, and won the bid for the 0.079 billion yuan transformer project in Mexico. The company fully reuses the overseas electricity business sales system. Relying on the five major overseas production bases in Brazil, Indonesia, Poland, Germany and Mexico, the future growth of power distribution overseas can be expected.
Ongoing orders reached a new high, with overseas distribution orders reaching 0.96 billion yuan. By the end of the third quarter, the company's on-hand orders were 15.62 billion yuan, +35.18% year over year, its domestic orders in China were 9.374 billion yuan, +35.10% year-on-year, and overseas orders were 6.246 billion yuan, +35.30% year over year. Overseas distribution orders were 0.962 billion yuan, +272.51% year-on-year, and distribution accounted for 15% of overseas orders.
Risk warning: Overseas market development falls short of expectations; raw material prices have risen sharply; industry competition has intensified.
Investment advice: Maintain profit forecasts and maintain a “better than the market” rating.
We expect the company to achieve net profit of 2.321/2.876/3.565 billion yuan in 2024-2026. The current stock price corresponds to PE 19/16/13 times, respectively, and maintains a “superior to market” rating.
