环卫装备景气度持续低位，新能源渗透率快速提升。2024 年前三季度环卫装备行业销量5.39 万辆，同比下降9.6%，主要是地方政府财政压力导致采购需求不足所致，行业景气度持续低迷，其中盈峰环境前三季度环卫装备总销量8,478 辆，同比下滑5.1%，下滑幅度低于行业情况，表明公司环卫装备市占率仍在提升。与此同时，在双碳政策下，各地区公共领域车辆新能源化持续推进，前三季度新能源环卫装备销量6,100 辆，同比增长42.3%，渗透率由2023 年全年的8.1%快速提升至2024 年前三季度的11.3%，其中盈峰环境前三季度新能源环卫装备销量1,699 辆，同比增长21.0%，表明公司在新能源装备领域面临较大的竞争压力。Description of the event
Yingfeng Environmental achieved operating income of 9.278 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 3.19% year on year, and net profit of 0.604 billion yuan, up 0.05% year on year; of these, Q3 2024 achieved revenue of 3.045 billion yuan, up 6.54% year on year, and net profit to mother of 0.223 billion yuan, down 3.20% year on year.
Incident comments
The sanitation equipment boom continues to be low, and the penetration rate of new energy sources is increasing rapidly. The sanitation equipment industry sold 0.0539 million vehicles in the first three quarters of 2024, down 9.6% year on year, mainly due to insufficient procurement demand due to local government financial pressure, and industry sentiment continued to be sluggish. Among them, Yingfeng Environmental sold 8,478 units of sanitation equipment in the first three quarters, down 5.1% year on year. The decline was lower than the industry situation, indicating that the company's sanitation equipment market share is still increasing. Meanwhile, under the dual carbon policy, new energy generation of public sector vehicles continues to advance in various regions. Sales of new energy sanitation equipment in the first three quarters were 6,100 vehicles, up 42.3% year on year. The penetration rate rapidly increased from 8.1% in the full year of 2023 to 11.3% in the first three quarters of 2024. Among them, Yingfeng Environmental sold 1,699 new energy sanitation equipment units in the first three quarters, an increase of 21.0% year on year, indicating that the company is facing greater competitive pressure in the field of new energy equipment.
Competition intensified, gross margin declined slightly, and the cost ratio effectively declined during the period. The company's comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 23.89%, down 0.87pct year on year. It is estimated to be related to increased competition in the industry. In terms of cost ratio, the company's expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 14.00%, down 1.95pct year on year. Among them, the sales expense ratio fell 1.43pct to 5.52%, which is expected to be mainly due to cost reduction and efficiency cost control. In addition, the management expense ratio also fell 0.41 pct to 7.84% year on year, and the financial expense ratio remained basically the same. Cash flow has deteriorated. The company's revenue ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 88.04%, down 6.8pct from the previous year. It is estimated that the sanitation service fee payment cycle was lengthened mainly against the backdrop of increased government financial pressure. Sanitation services belong to the Three Guarantees industry (protecting basic livelihood, wages, and operating expenses), and are a priority direction for chemical debt. Sanitation garbage cleaning and dumping is an essential service for maintaining the normal operation of the city (protecting people's livelihood and transportation expenses). Furthermore, sanitation companies hire a large number of sanitation workers (guarantee wages), and it is expected that the chemical debt policy will improve corporate cash flow.
We expect the continued promotion of sanitation services and the increase in the release of new energy sanitation equipment to drive improved performance. On January 30, 2023, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Notice on Organizing and Launching Pilot Work in the Public Sector Vehicle Full Electrification Pilot Zone”, which proposes to “launch pilot work on a comprehensive electrification pilot zone for public sector vehicles nationwide”, requiring the proportion of new energy vehicles added and updated to the pilot field to reach 80% of new energy vehicles. The penetration rate of new energy sanitation equipment in 2023 is only about 8.1%, and the growth of new energy sanitation equipment is quite flexible in the future.
Net profit due to mother for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 695 million yuan, 8.11 million yuan, and 932 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE22x, 19x, and 16x, maintaining an “incremental” rating.
Risk warning
1. The sanitation marketization process is lower than expected;
2. The competitive pattern of new energy equipment has deteriorated.
