CNOOC LTD(883.HK):3Q24 EARNINGS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF FORECAST
CNOOC LTD(883.HK):3Q24 EARNINGS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF FORECAST
For 9M24, the company's earnings surged 19% YoY to RMB116.7bn, with 8% YoY growth in total oil and gas output and 3% YoY increase in realised oil price as key growth drivers.The net profit of CNOOC Limited slipped 8% QoQ to RMB36.9bn in 3Q24, 3% ahead of our forecast. Despite the small decline in realised oil price and oil and gas output, the company managed to contain the impact on earnings. Looking into 4Q24, we expect its earnings to drop 37% QoQ mainly on lower oil price. Although we reduce our forecast of average price of Brent from US$84/bbl to US$80/bbl for 2024, we only change our earnings forecasts by -4%/1%/1% for 2024/25/26 respectively. We reiterate our BUY call given the attractive dividend for the coming three years. We slightly lower our target price to HK$26.64.
中國海洋石油有限公司的淨利潤在2024年第三季度環比下降8%，達到人民幣369億元，比我們的預測高出3%。儘管油價和石油、燃料幣產量實現了小幅下降，但公司設法將對收益的影響降至最低。展望2024年第四季度，我們預計其收益將主要受到較低油價的影響下降37%。儘管我們將布倫特平均價格的預測從每桶84美元調整爲每桶80美元，但我們僅將2024/25/26年的收益預測分別調整爲-4%/1%/1%。鑑於未來三年豐厚的股息，我們重申買入建議。我們稍微降低了目標價至26.64港幣。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The discrepancy between our forecasts and the actual 3Q24 earnings mainly came from the higher-than-expected investment income and fair value change and lower-than-expected tax rate. The company's gross profit dropped 11% QoQ, 5% below our forecast.
我們預測與實際2024年第三季度的收益之間的差異主要來自高於預期的投資收益、公允價值變動以及低於預期的稅率。公司的毛利潤環比下降11%，低於我們的預測5%。
For 9M24, the company's earnings surged 19% YoY to RMB116.7bn, with 8% YoY growth in total oil and gas output and 3% YoY increase in realised oil price as key growth drivers.
截至2024年第三季度，公司的收益同比激增19%，達到人民幣1167億元，油氣總產量同比增長8%，實現油價同比增長3%，成爲主要增長驅動因素。
The company's total oil and gas output grew 7% YoY in 3Q24 with decent growth in both China and overseas. Despite the disruptions from typhoons, the company contained the impact through remote control of some of the affected production platforms. As its total oil and gas output in 9M24 already reached 75.3-77.4% of its full-year guidance, we now expect the company's full-year output to reach the high-end of its guidance (i.e. 720m BOE).
公司的總油氣產量在2024年第三季度同比增長7%，中國和境外均表現良好。儘管受颱風影響，公司通過遠程控制部分受影響的生產平台將影響降至最低。由於公司2024年前三季度總油氣產量已達到全年指導的75.3-77.4%，我們預計公司全年產量將達到指導的高端（即72000萬桶當量）。
Its realised oil price dropped 6.7% QoQ to US$76.4/bbl, slightly better than the 7.4% QoQ fall in the average price of Brent.
其實現油價環比下降6.7%，至每桶76.4美元，略好於布倫特平均價格環比下降7.4%。
The company continued to show good cost control. Its unit opex grew 5% YoY while its all-in cost was flat YoY in 3Q24. For 9M24, its opex dropped 2% YoY while its all-in cost decreased 1% YoY.
公司持續顯示出良好的成本控制。其單位運營支出同比增長5%，而總成本同比持平。2024年前三季度，運營支出同比下降2%，總成本同比減少1%。
Its capex grew 7% YoY to RMB95.3bn in 9M24. The company maintains its full- year capex budget at RMB125-135bn for 2024, basically flat YoY.
截至2024年第三季度，其資本支出同比增長7%，達到人民幣953億元。公司將2024年全年資本支出預算保持在125-1350億元，同比基本持平。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Sharp fall in oil price.
油價大幅下跌。
Higher-than-expected costs.
成本高於預期。
Valuation
估值
We lower our target price from HK$26.76 to HK$26.64 to reflect the changes in our earnings forecasts. Our target valuation is still 5.5% average dividend yield for 2024-26E.
我們將目標價從HK$26.76下調至HK$26.64，以反映我們盈利預測的變化。我們的目標估值仍爲2024-26E的5.5%平均股息率。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
