The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Aviation Securities released a research report saying that the advantages of fast response, short cycle, and high cost performance in commercial space are expected to be realized one by one, and the rocket manufacturing market is expected to grow more and more. The development of reusable rocket launch technology, increased engine thrust, and the application trend of liquid rocket engines are the three major development directions in the future. The advent of reusable technology has helped reduce costs, and higher loads also demand higher performance components; the extreme performance of hot-end materials is the key to whether engines can continue to improve combustion efficiency and thrust; and future upgrades and iterations of liquid rocket engines and the growth of the rocket manufacturing market will jointly influence the application demand for new upstream materials and processes.

The main views of China Aviation Securities are as follows:

The frequency of commercial space rocket launches is increasing rapidly: As an important representative technology of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, commercial space has extremely high strategic significance and commercial value.

From an overseas perspective, the SpaceX “Starlink” program is progressing rapidly, and China's rocket launch frequency, payload, and other key technical indicators need to be improved. Behind this, stronger industrial forces are needed to boost it. Therefore, China's commercial aerospace development is shouldering a strategic mission, and a series of related support policies have also been introduced in recent years. Since the commercial space industry has the characteristics of rapid response, short cycle time, and high cost performance, the rocket manufacturing market is expected to grow more and more in the context of accelerated rocket launches and rapid market expansion, and related material and process innovations are expected to become the core of driving the upgrading and iteration of the rocket manufacturing process.

The three major rocket technology trends drive the application of new materials and processes: the development of reusable rocket launch technology, the increase in engine thrust, and the application trends of liquid rocket engines are the three major future development directions.

Changes in the application of new materials and new processes in rocket manufacturing: ① Reusable technology can reduce the comprehensive launch cost of rockets and increase overall value while putting forward higher performance requirements for applied materials; ② the increase in engine thrust-to-weight ratio depends on engine combustion efficiency, thereby promoting innovation in materials resistant to high temperatures and high thermal conductivity and related processing processes; ③ application trends and propellant solutions for liquid rocket engines will place different requirements on the selection of tank materials.

New materials help improve engine performance: Increased thrust is a prerequisite for increasing rocket load, and the extreme performance of hot-end materials is the key to whether the engine can continuously improve combustion efficiency and thrust.

① Today, copper-chromium-niobium and chromium-zirconium-copper alloys have begun to be used in advanced rocket engines as next-generation thrust interior wall materials. The bank estimates that the global commercial aerospace copper alloy market space will be about 29.0 to 4.06 billion yuan from 2025 to 2030, and domestic thrust interior wall products represented by copper-chromium-niobium alloys are expected to grow from 0 to 1 as demand for materials used in rockets advances. ② Thermal barrier coatings are mainly used to increase the temperature resistance limit of combustion chambers. Driven by the promotion of commercial aerospace reusable technology and demand for high-thrust rockets, the bank expects the domestic commercial aerospace thermal barrier coating material market space to be about 20.6 to 5.47 billion yuan from 2025 to 2030, and there is room for continuous growth.

Manufacturing demand is leading the transformation of new processes: the most critical issue in commercial space is economy.

The advent of reusable technology has helped reduce costs, while higher loads also require higher performance components, which is conducive to the expansion of the application of new processes:

① Additive manufacturing is currently mainly used in satellite structures, rocket arrows and engine components in the aerospace field. Among them, since regenerative cooling systems play an important role in rockets, additive manufacturing can well balance cost and process complexity, so it has become an indispensable key technology for commercial aerospace. The demand for low-cost, large-size additive manufacturing components is expected to increase in the next stage. The bank expects the domestic commercial aerospace additive manufacturing market space to be about 105-24 billion yuan from 2025 to 2030;

② Thermal isostatic pressure technology is limited by high costs and is mainly used in aero engines, and there are few applications in the strategic space age. Currently, the industry is showing a trend of leading Europe and the US, and catching up domestically. Under the trend of commercial rocket reusable technology and large payloads, downstream companies are in strong demand for components with better performance. The bank determines that thermal isostatic pressure may be gradually accepted by commercial space rocket companies, gradually opening up space for its application in the space field.

Investment suggestions: It is recommended to focus on Sirui New Materials (688102.SH); Huaqin Technology (688281.SH), Xinjingang (300629.SZ); Platinum (688333.SH), Huashu Hi-Tech (); Steel Research Haopu, Ouzhong Technology (hot isostatic pressing equipment and services); Chaojie (301005.SZ), Guangwei Composites (300699.SZ), Steel Research Gaona (300034.SZ), Shengbang Co., Ltd. (301233.SZ). 688433.SH

Risk warning: large fluctuations in raw material prices, corporate fund-raising projects falling short of expectations, downstream demand growth falling short of expectations, risk of technology route iteration, risk of large stock price fluctuations, etc.