SHENGYI TECH(600183):PCB OUTPERFORMED CCL IN 3Q; MARGIN IMPROVED SEQUENTIALLY
SHENGYI TECH(600183):PCB OUTPERFORMED CCL IN 3Q; MARGIN IMPROVED SEQUENTIALLY
Maintain BUY with adjusted TP at RMB28.75. We slightly revised down our sales/NP estimates by 4%/6% for 2025E. New TP is based on 25.5x rollover 2025E P/E, which is close to its 3-yr historical forward P/E. Potential risks include copper price volatility and weaker-than-expected demand recovery.Shengyi Tech announced 3Q24 results. Revenue was RMB5.1bn, up 14.5% YoY but down 1.7% QoQ, in-line with Bloomberg consensus. GPM was 22.9%, up 1.1ppts from 2Q24, benefitting from favourable product mix and lowered material costs. NP was RMB440mn, up 27.8% YoY but down 18.6% QoQ. NPM lowered to 8.6% (vs. 10.4% in 2Q24). Bottom line missed Bloomberg consensus by 26%, mainly due to SBC cost of RMB150mn (~2.9% of revenue). Looking forward, we expect Shengyi's revenue to grow at 20%/16% YoY in 2024/25E, with improved margin at 22.1%/23.6%. Maintain BUY with adjusted TP at RMB28.75 (vs. prev. RMB26.41), reflecting rollover 25.5x 2025E P/E, which is closed to its 3-yr historical forward P/E.
盛弈科技宣佈了2024年第三季度業績。營業收入爲51億人民幣，同比增長14.5%，但環比下降1.7%，符合彭博共識。毛利率爲22.9%，較第二季度提高了1.1個百分點，受惠於有利的產品組合和降低的材料成本。淨利潤爲4.4億元，同比增長27.8%，但環比下降18.6%。淨利潤率降至8.6%（去年同期爲10.4%）。底線利潤與彭博共識相比低了26%，主要由於其150萬元人民幣的SBC成本（約佔營業收入的2.9%）。展望未來，我們預計盛弈的營業收入將在2024年/2025年同比增長20%/16%，毛利率將改善至22.1%/23.6%。維持買入評級，調整目標價爲28.75元人民幣（上調至26.41元人民幣），反映2025年市盈率25.5倍，接近其3年曆史前瞻市盈率。
PCB sales grew on strong AI demand. GPM recovered both YoY and QoQ. 3Q24 PCB revenue was RMB1.2bn, up 49.3% YoY and 10.8% QoQ. The growth was mainly driven by a significant rise (20.9% YoY in 9M24) in server revenue (42.5% of PCB sales). Overseas market outperformed with 32.1% YoY sales increase. GPM recovered to 24.9% from 20.4%/14.2% in 3Q23/2Q24, mainly on favourable revenue mix. NPM rose to 7.5% vs. - 3.4%/6.4% in 3Q23/2Q24. We raise our projection for PCB sales by 5%/1% for 2024/25E, on quicker-than-expected ramp-up of related products for AI server market. We expect the segment to grow at 35%/20% in 2024/25E.
PCb銷售因人工智能需求強勁增長。毛利率在年度和季度均恢復。2024年第三季度PCb營業收入爲12億元人民幣，同比增長49.3%，環比增長10.8%。增長主要由服務器營業收入大幅上升（9月年度同比增長20.9%）推動，佔PCb銷售額的42.5%。境外市場表現優異，銷售額同比增長32.1%。毛利率從2023年第三季度/2024年第二季度的20.4%/14.2%恢復至24.9%，主要受益於有利的營業收入組合。淨利潤率升至7.5%，相比2023年第三季度/2024年第二季度的-3.4%/6.4%有所提高。我們將2024年/2025年PCb銷售預測上調5%/1%，主要受益於人工智能服務器市場相關產品快於預期的增長。我們預計該板塊在2024年/2025年將增長35%/20%。
CCL revenue was up YoY but down QoQ (est. 5-6% lower), likely on weaker-than-expected demand in non-AI market, which suppresses ASP recovery. Margin slid sequentially, as copper price remained at its highs (avg. price in 3Q24: ~US$9.9k/t). But Shengyi managed to offset partial impact of material cost headwinds with pre-procurement activities. However, this led to an 8% QoQ increase (RMB365mn) in inventory. We cut our forecasts for CCL sales by 8%/6% for 2024/25E, on slower-than- expected market recovery. We expect the segment to grow at 14%/15% in 2024/25E.
CCL營業收入同比增長但環比下降（預計下降5-6%），可能是由於非人工智能市場需求疲弱，抑制了ASP的回升。由於銅價保持高位（2024年第三季度平均價格約爲每噸9.9千美元），利潤率按季度滑落。但盛弈通過預採購活動部分抵消了材料成本逆風的影響。然而，這導致庫存環比增長8%（3650萬元人民幣）。我們下調了2024年/2025年CCL銷售預測8%/6%，原因是市場恢復速度低於預期。我們預計該板塊在2024年/2025年將增長14%/15%。
Maintain BUY with adjusted TP at RMB28.75. We slightly revised down our sales/NP estimates by 4%/6% for 2025E. New TP is based on 25.5x rollover 2025E P/E, which is close to its 3-yr historical forward P/E. Potential risks include copper price volatility and weaker-than-expected demand recovery.
維持買入評級，調整目標價爲28.75元人民幣。我們略微下調了2025年的銷售/淨利潤預測4%/6%。新的目標價基於2025年市盈率25.5倍，接近其3年曆史前瞻市盈率。潛在風險包括銅價波動和需求恢復低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
