磷化工产业上游磷矿在资源保护、环保限制下供给较紧缺。黄磷为高能耗、高污染产品，直接受产能限制，政策鼓励黄磷行业设备节能绿色发展、产品梯级并综合利用。磷铵产能利用率有所提升，未来政策将继续严格控制磷铵行业新增产能。 湿法净化磷酸、磷酸铁、磷酸铁锂供给相对宽松， 景气或见底。在双碳和高质量发展背景下，我们看好行业供给侧改革持续推进。Since 2024, energy-saving and carbon-reducing, and capacity optimization policies have been successively introduced. After the acceleration of the dual-carbon policy, it is expected that some positive changes will occur on the supply side.
According to the Securities Times app, Guolian Securities released a research report stating that since 2024, energy-saving and carbon-reducing, and capacity optimization policies have been successively introduced. After the acceleration of the dual-carbon policy, it is expected that some positive changes will occur on the supply side. Under the continuous advancement of supply-side reforms, special attention needs to be paid to the phosphorus ore, yellow phosphorus, and ammonium phosphate industries. It is recommended to focus on the fluorine chemical companies that excel in industry chain integration, infrastructure improvement, scale advantages, and technological processes, as well as the silicon chemical companies with scale and cost advantages. With the marginal increase in supply of polyester filament diminishing, leading enterprises are actively reducing operational loads to a certain extent or effectively optimizing product profit margins.
Phosphorus Chemicals: The supply-side reform will continue to advance.
In the upstream of the phosphorus chemicals industry, phosphorus ore is relatively scarce under resource protection and environmental restrictions. Yellow phosphorus, as a high-energy consumption and high-pollution product, is directly affected by production capacity constraints. Policies encourage the energy-saving and green development of equipment in the yellow phosphorus industry, the hierarchical development of products, and comprehensive utilization. The utilization rate of phosphorus ammonium capacity has increased, and future policies will continue to strictly control the addition of capacity in the phosphorus ammonium industry. Wet purification phosphoric acid, iron phosphate, and lithium iron phosphate have relatively ample supplies, and the market may have bottomed out. Against the backdrop of the dual-carbon and high-quality development, we are optimistic about the continuous advancement of supply-side reforms in the industry.
Fluorine Chemicals: Abundant PVDF capacity.
Driven by the demand for lithium batteries, domestic PVDF supply is rapidly expanding. The production capacity in 2022/2023 was 0.116/0.146 million tons, with growth rates of 56.1%/26.4% respectively, and a capacity utilization rate of around 60%. In 2023, due to the slowdown in domestic demand growth for new energy vehicles and intense domestic competition, the price of lithium carbonate briefly declined. The average price of PVDF was 0.25/0.402 million yuan/ton in 2021/2022, and in 2023, it dropped to an average of 0.109 million yuan/ton.
Silicon Chemicals: Bullish on the trichlorosilane industry strengthening survival of the fittest mechanism.
In recent years, the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry has accelerated the release of trichlorosilane production capacity, with the current capacity utilization rate below 50%, while prices and differentials are at historically low levels. Against the backdrop of the country's high emphasis on high-quality development, industries with poor profitability and low capacity utilization rates are expected to strengthen the survival of the fittest mechanism, driving supply-side improvement.
Other segmented industries that may reduce production
The supply side of polyester filament is experiencing a decrease in marginal increment, with leading companies actively lowering operating loads or effectively optimizing product profitability to a certain extent. Industries such as carbide, polycarbonate, and carbon fiber have prominent energy consumption levels and low capacity utilization rates. The epoxy propane and viscose industries have high pollution attributes. Both viscose staple fiber and filament industries have relatively strict restrictions on capacity expansion. In the future, these highly polluting and low-capacity utilization industries are expected to face stricter policy restrictions, accelerating supply-side improvements. If the "dual carbon" policy is expected to accelerate, the prosperity of other new energy-related industries such as soda ash, EVA, POE, epoxy resin, polyether amine, lithium battery-grade aramid, photovoltaic/wind power coatings, and biodiesel is expected to be boosted.
Investment recommendation: Focus on the phosphorus/fluorine/silicon chemical industry and other possible segmented industries with production reduction potential
1) Phosphorus chemicals: Focus on the phosphorus ore, yellow phosphorus, and ammonium phosphate industries where the supply side reform continues, as well as the wet process purifying phosphoric acid, iron phosphate, and lithium iron phosphate industries with expected supply and demand improvements.
2): It is recommended to focus on fluorine chemical companies that demonstrate outstanding performance in industrial chain integration, infrastructure improvement, scale advantages, and technological processes, with the symbols of Zhejiang JuHua (600160.SH) and Dongyue Group (00189).
3) Silicon chemicals: Focus on silicon chemical companies with scale and cost advantages.
4) Other: Focus on the polyester filament industry with reduced new production capacity and strong leading pricing power, with symbols of Tongkun Group, Xinfengming; pay attention to outstanding companies in the carbide, polycarbonate, carbon fiber, epoxy propane, viscose staple fiber and filament, soda ash, EVA, POE, epoxy resin, polyether amine, lithium battery-grade aramid, and photovoltaic/wind power coatings industries.
Risk reminder: risks of insufficient production reduction intensity; risks of lower than expected market demand; risks of increased environmental protection costs.
