With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 0.4x in the Specialty Retail industry in the United States, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about The Gap, Inc.'s (NYSE:GAP) P/S ratio of 0.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.
How Gap Has Been Performing
Recent times haven't been great for Gap as its revenue has been rising slower than most other companies. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S ratio from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Gap will help you uncover what's on the horizon.
How Is Gap's Revenue Growth Trending?
Gap's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.
If we review the last year of revenue, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. The lack of growth did nothing to help the company's aggregate three-year performance, which is an unsavory 8.7% drop in revenue. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 1.1% each year over the next three years. With the industry predicted to deliver 5.8% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.
With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Gap's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Bottom Line On Gap's P/S
We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
When you consider that Gap's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - Gap has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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