费用投入有所控制，盈利能力保持稳健。24年前9月公司毛利率31.9%，同比-0.5pct，主要因：1）内销承压导致收入结构变化；2）收入下降致分摊费用增加；3）需求受损情况下对经销商进行部分让利。相较 24H1，公司在费用投入上有所节制，前 9 月管理费用率/销售费用率分别为 2.2%/15.9%，同比分别-0.03/0.3pct。前 9 月净利率为 9.8%，同比-0.8pct。Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 24 years ago, in September, the company achieved operating income of 13.81 billion yuan, -2.4% year over year; net profit to mother of 1.36 billion yuan, -9.5% year over year. Among them, 24Q3 achieved operating income of 4.89 billion yuan, or -6.9% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 0.46 billion yuan, or -19.9% year-on-year. Domestic sales are still under pressure, and export sales continue to grow. Looking at the subregion, we estimate that 24Q3 export sales revenue will continue the growth trend in the first half of the year. Domestic sales were adversely affected by downward pressure on domestic real estate, demand was still under pressure in the short term, and there was no significant improvement in Q3 compared to Q2. The company's profitability was damaged in the short term due to the increase in the structural share due to the increase in export sales revenue, but thanks to the company's active expansion into overseas markets, the revenue side is still resilient.
Revenue from core categories is now resilient, and the customized business is growing rapidly. By category, the core category of sofas benefited from the increase in revenue from foreign trade channels and achieved steady growth as a whole; bedroom product revenue was under pressure; custom furniture revenue maintained relatively rapid growth at a low base. The company continued to enhance the competitiveness of terminal stores through iterative product/store optimization and overall enabling system changes, and promoted the transformation towards larger homes.
In terms of the number of stores, the development of new stores and the upgrading of old stores are progressing smoothly. The expansion of customized stores has further maintained medium- to high-speed growth, and the speed of opening integrated stores has also accelerated, and the proportion has further increased. Customization and the entire business continue to grow well, and we judge that the transformation process of the company to a large household is progressing steadily.
Expenses have been controlled, and profitability has remained steady. 24 years ago, the company's gross profit margin was 31.9%, -0.5pct year on year, mainly due to: 1) changes in revenue structure due to pressure from domestic sales; 2) increased cost sharing due to falling revenue; 3) partial concessions to dealers when demand was damaged. Compared with 24H1, the company reduced its cost investment. The management fee rate/sales expense ratio for the first 9 months was 2.2%/15.9%, respectively, and -0.03/0.3 pct compared with the previous year. The net profit margin for the first 9 months was 9.8%, -0.8pct year over year.
Investment advice: The company is a leader in soft home furnishings. Revenue growth in core categories is showing resilience. The development progress of the entire customized business continues to accelerate, which is expected to contribute to business growth. Considering the negative impact of downward pressure on real estate on the demand side, we expect the company's 2024/2025/2026 EPS to be 2.43/2.51/2.72 yuan, respectively, and the closing price of 32.7 yuan on October 25, corresponding PE to 10X/10X/9X, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of macroeconomic and market fluctuations, the risk of raw material price fluctuations, the risk of channel expansion falling short of expectations, the risk of increased market competition, and the risk of uncertain trade policies.
