Those Who Invested in Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK) a Year Ago Are up 25%
Those Who Invested in Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK) a Year Ago Are up 25%
There's no doubt that investing in the stock market is a truly brilliant way to build wealth. But if you choose that path, you're going to buy some stocks that fall short of the market. For example, the Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK), share price is up over the last year, but its gain of 23% trails the market return. On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 0.8% in three years.
毫無疑問,投資股市是建立財富的絕佳途徑。但如果你選擇這條路,你將會買入一些表現不佳的股票。例如,Oshkosh Corporation(紐交所:OSK),股價在過去一年中上漲,但漲幅23%,落後於市場回報。另一方面,長期股東的情況較爲艱難,股價在三年中下跌了0.8%。
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
那麼,讓我們調查一下並查看公司的長期表現是否符合基本業務的進展。
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
禾倫·巴菲特在他的文章《格雷厄姆與多德維爾的超級投資者》中描述了股票價格並不總是合理地反映了一家企業的價值。考慮市場對一家公司的看法如何轉變的一種不完美但簡單的方法,是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價的動態進行比較。
Oshkosh was able to grow EPS by 68% in the last twelve months. This EPS growth is significantly higher than the 23% increase in the share price. So it seems like the market has cooled on Oshkosh, despite the growth. Interesting. The caution is also evident in the lowish P/E ratio of 10.12.
Oshkosh在過去十二個月內成功增長了68%的每股收益。這種每股收益的增長顯著高於23%的股價增長。因此,儘管增長仍在繼續,但市場似乎對Oshkosh的態度有所冷卻。有趣的是,這種謹慎也體現在較低的市盈率(P/E)10.12中。
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下圖顯示了EPS隨時間變化的情況(點擊圖像以顯示確切值)。
We know that Oshkosh has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
我們知道Oshkosh最近改善了其底線,但它是否會增長營業收入呢?如果您感興趣,您可以查看這份免費報告,展示共識營業收入預測。
What About Dividends?
那麼分紅怎麼樣呢?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Oshkosh the TSR over the last 1 year was 25%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了衡量股價回報外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。TSR包括任何分拆或折讓的籌資價值,以及任何分紅,基於將分紅再投資的假設。因此,對於支付慷慨分紅的公司,TSR往往比股價回報高得多。我們注意到,對於Oshkosh,過去1年的TSR爲25%,這比上述股價回報要好。可以毫不費力地猜到,分紅付款在很大程度上解釋了這種分歧!
A Different Perspective
不同的觀點
Oshkosh provided a TSR of 25% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 6% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Oshkosh has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
Oshkosh在過去12個月內提供了25%的TSR。不幸的是,這還不及市場回報。好消息是,這種盈利實際上比過去五年平均年回報率的6%要好。這表明該公司可能隨着時間的推移而改善。我發現長期觀察股價作爲業務績效的代理很有趣。但要真正獲得深刻見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,承擔風險 - Oshkosh有2個警示標誌(其中1個是重要的),我們認爲您應該了解。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
如果您喜歡與管理層一起購買股票,那麼您可能會喜歡這個公司的免費列表。 (提示:其中許多公司不爲人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。