上调目标价至 44.20 元，维持“增持”评级。业绩符合预期，维持盈利预测。2024-2026 年公司营业收入分别为21.85、23.54、25.65 亿元，EPS 分别为0.73、0.88、0.97 元。参考可比公司2024 年6.67 倍PS，上调目标价至44.20 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Under high-quality management, the quality of reports is stable. After financial strength, the company will benefit significantly, and the profit side is expected to unleash greater flexibility.
Key points of investment:
The target price was raised to 44.20 yuan to maintain the “gain” rating. The performance was in line with expectations, and profit forecasts were maintained. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 was 2.185, 2.354 and 2.565 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS was 0.73, 0.88, and 0.97 yuan, respectively. Referring to the comparable company's 2024 PS 6.67 times, the target price was raised to 44.20 yuan to maintain the “gain” rating.
Revenue returned to growth in a single quarter, and platform operations may become a major growth point. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.258 billion yuan, down 8.71% year on year, and achieved revenue of 0.474 billion yuan in Q3, up 1.63% year on year. Revenue returned to growth in the single quarter, and the performance was in line with expectations. We expect the main growth point to be the company's platform business. The growth rate of this business anchors the number of government tenders, not simply IT expenses, and is more resilient during periods of sluggish industry prosperity.
Revenue from the project construction business continues to be under pressure in the short term, and we still have to wait for the inflection point of government IT spending.
High quality management, stable report quality. The company lost 13.8887 million yuan in the first three quarters, which was a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, and the net interest rate increased from -6.45% to -1.10%. Fee control results were remarkable. The sales expense ratio decreased by 7.42 pct year on year, and other expense rates also declined to varying degrees. The company's operating quality is high. Cash recovered 1.448 billion in the first three quarters, which was significantly higher than revenue. Net operating cash flow was -0.178 billion, which was significantly narrower than in the same period last year. High-quality cash flow has brought about a high-quality balance sheet, and the gradual reduction in bad debt accruals has also reduced the impact on the income statement. The company's net interest rate has already entered a recovery channel, and it is expected to increase quarterly in the future.
Chemical bonds are directly benefiting, and the boom is expected to pick up. At the press conference of the State Information Office on October 12, the Minister of Finance specifically mentioned supporting the resolution of local debt risks, increasing debt amounts on a large scale, and supporting local resolution of hidden debts. We believe that debt conversion has opened up the government's fiscal space. On the one hand, the company's platform operation business is highly related to financial expenses and will directly benefit. On the other hand, IT projects accumulated in the early stages may advance in an orderly manner, and project construction revenue is expected to reach an inflection point. It is expected that in the future, after the boom on the revenue side reverses, the company's profit side is expected to unleash greater flexibility.
Risk warning: Fiscal investment has declined more than expected, labor costs have risen, and policy risks.
