It's been a good week for Shenzhen Airport Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000089) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.6% to CN¥6.98. Revenues of CN¥1.2b fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of CN¥0.07 an impressive 77% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Shenzhen Airport are now predicting revenues of CN¥5.25b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 16% to CN¥0.32. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥5.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.32 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at CN¥7.81, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Shenzhen Airport, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥9.20 and the most bearish at CN¥6.50 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Shenzhen Airport's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Shenzhen Airport's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Shenzhen Airport is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Shenzhen Airport. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Shenzhen Airport going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Shenzhen Airport that we have uncovered.

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