动力Q3产能利用率较低，Q4有新客户导入改善。前3Q动力电池20.71GWh，yoy+5%，Q3 出货量7.17GWh，环比较为持平。主要系车市竞争压力不减，因部分乘用车大客户车型销量不及预期，电池装机量受到一定影响，但四季度有新客户新车型导入，预计改善。我们预计，Q3 由于产能利用率低，目前在接近盈亏平衡线。Key points of investment:
Q3 deducted +11%, and gross margin increased significantly. Revenue for the previous 3Q was 34.049 billion, yoy -4.16%, net profit to mother of 3.189 billion, yoy -6.88%. Q3 revenue was 12.39 billion, yoy -1.3%, net profit to mother of 1.051 billion, yoy -17.44%, after deducting non-1.001 billion, yoy +11.38%. Gross profit margin 19.01%, up 3.45pct month-on-month. We believe that the main reason for the increase in gross margin is the increase in production capacity utilization, the stabilization of battery prices+lower costs due to lower lithium carbonate prices.
The profitability of energy storage has increased significantly, and shipments have increased significantly. The first 3Q energy storage battery shipments were 35.73 GWh, yoy +116%, and Q3 shipments were 14.78 GWh, +6% month-on-month. According to InfoLink data, 2024H1 ranks second in the world for the company's energy storage cell shipments.
Power Q3's capacity utilization rate was low, and new customers were introduced and improved in Q4. The previous 3Q power battery was 20.71 GWh, yoy +5%, and the Q3 shipment volume was 7.17 GWh, which was relatively flat. The main reason is that competitive pressure in the car market has not abated. As sales of some major passenger car models fell short of expectations, battery installed capacity was affected to a certain extent, but new customers introduced new models in the fourth quarter, and improvements are expected. We expect Q3 is currently close to the break-even line due to low capacity utilization.
Consumer battery performance is impressive, and new production capacity is about to be released. In the field of consumer batteries, lithium thionyl chloride batteries and battery capacitors (SPC) are two national manufacturing champions. The monthly production and sales volume of consumer small cylindrical batteries exceeded 0.1 billion. The company hopes to be able to ship 1 billion small cylindrical batteries in 2024 (which is expected to be exceeded). The Chengdu plant is now in operation, and the construction of the Malaysian plant is progressing smoothly. Product market share. The company expects the consumer battery growth rate to remain around 30% in 2025, driven by increased production capacity+increased cell capacity+development of new scenarios (such as medical batteries, etc.).
The CLS model was officially launched to open up overseas markets. On 24H1, ACT, the company's first CLS model implementation project, successfully started construction in the US. The US joint venture project is expected to generate 23 million US dollars in 2024.
Currently, several projects are in the negotiation stage, which has laid a good foundation for the development of this model.
Profit forecasting and investment ratings. We estimate that the company's net profit for 24-26 will be 4.22/5.533/7.173 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 2.06/2.70/3.51 yuan, respectively. Comparable to the company's 2024 PE was 36 times. We gave 2024 a 30-35 times PE valuation range, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 61.89-72.20 yuan. First coverage, giving an investment rating of “superior to the market”.
Risk warning: The growth rate of the energy storage market falls short of expectations, the growth rate of power batteries falls short of expectations, the growth rate of consumer batteries falls short of expectations, and the price war is too intense.
