The US election on November 5 is undoubtedly one of the most important factors affecting the global market recently, and the election results may have an impact on the global economy in the next few years. Democratic presidential candidate Harris and Republican presidential candidate Trump have in some cases shied away from critical questions about how they will deal with major industries such as technology. More importantly, how will the two candidates advance antitrust efforts against large technology companies after the Biden administration steps up enforcement against such companies.

The upcoming US election will undoubtedly have a clear commercial impact. Here are five industries that received the most attention on Election Day:

1. Large banks

America's eight largest banks are about to face this requirement: they must hold more capital to better guarantee their solvency and withstand financial shocks. This means less money is being paid to shareholders through share buybacks or dividends. Banks also believe that the new capital requirements will reduce their loans to consumers and businesses.

The US election may decide when these requirements take effect and how much additional capital banks need to hold. If Harris wins the election, US regulators may push ahead with provisions that fall under Basel III. According to the plan announced by the Federal Reserve last month, the capital requirements of large banks such as Bank of America (BAC.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), Citibank (C.US), Wells Fargo (WFC.US), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) will increase by 9%. Bloomberg Intelligence believes that under the leadership of the Democratic Party government, there is a 60% chance that this requirement will be finalized by the third quarter of 2025.

Meanwhile, BTIG managing director Isaac Boltansky said that if Trump wins the election, efforts to finalize these requirements will be delayed and eventually significantly softened. He said Trump will also tend to reduce regulation of the financial industry in a range of other areas. He added that higher capital requirements usually reduce banks' profits, but it is difficult to estimate the impact until all the details are finalized.

2. Healthcare

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that if Obamacare subsidies are not extended after they expire at the end of next year, healthcare companies such as Centene (CNC.US) and UnitedHealth (UNH.US) are expected to face a $25 billion drop in revenue in 2026. These subsidies help millions of Americans pay for health insurance. The US Congressional Budget Office predicts that if the increased subsidies are not extended, the number of people covered by Obamacare will be reduced by 3.8 million within a year.

Larry Levitt, executive vice president of the non-profit health policy research organization KFF, said Harris and Democrats strongly support extending the subsidy, but it won't be a priority for Trump and the Republicans. He pointed out that losing the subsidy would be “money out of health care companies' pockets.” But at the same time, he pointed out that the Republican Party's greater influence may ease the pressure on the pharmaceutical industry to reduce the price of prescription drugs in the pharmaceutical industry negotiations.

3. Electric vehicles

Electric vehicle manufacturers, including Tesla (TSLA.US) and Rivian (RIVN.US), and traditional car companies that have invested heavily in this technology, such as General Motors (GM.US), are paying close attention to the US election results, because tax incentives for consumers to buy electric vehicles and emission standards that encourage the production of more low-polluting cars will all be affected by the election results.

Bloomberg Intelligence said that Harris's victory means federal tax credits of up to $7,500 for new electric vehicles and up to $4,000 for used cars may be retained, and in the case of Trump's victory, these federal tax credits may be cancelled or cut due to stricter “buy American goods” restrictions.

Trump also made it clear that if he comes to power, he will end the Biden administration's policy of supporting electric vehicles “from day one.” Despite receiving support from Tesla CEO Musk during the campaign, Trump moderated his attitude towards electric vehicles, but he still criticized the Biden administration's electric vehicle policy during the campaign.

Evercore ISI senior managing director Sarah Bianchi said that to abolish clean energy industry subsidies or tax credits for consumers, a Republican majority is needed in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. She pointed out that the biggest risk is that Trump will use the executive branch's power to implement restrictions through regulatory reforms.

4. Retail

Trump promised a 10% to 20% tariff on all imported goods. If Trump wins the election, retailers are expected to be squeezed by a sharp increase in tariffs on consumer goods. Bloomberg Intelligence notes that Trump's tariff policy may affect retailers' sales volume and profit margins. Although tariffs are paid by importers, most of the higher costs are passed on to US retailers and consumers.

Henrietta Treyz, managing partner at investment advisory firm Veda Partners, said the retail sector is most affected by Trump's tariff policy because it involves a wide range of products. According to the American Apparel and Footwear Association, 97% of clothing sold in the US is imported, and 98% of footwear is also imported. According to the American Consumer Technology Association, more than 90% of consumer electronics products in the US are imported. Henrietta Treyz added that Harris is unlikely to raise tariffs across the board as Trump plans, but instead focus on specific industries, product lines, and export controls.

5. Energy

Oil, gas, and coal producers will benefit in various ways from Trump's election victory, and will benefit even more if the Republicans gain control of Congress. For clean energy producers, they will benefit under the leadership of Harris and the Democrats. And if Trump wins the election, offshore wind power will be particularly at risk. Proposed projects may face the risk of approval being rejected, and even those that have already been approved may be at risk.

Trump promised to reverse the Biden administration's suspension of issuing new licenses needed to export liquefied natural gas more widely. More than a dozen multi-billion dollar projects are awaiting approval, including Venture Global LNG's upcoming CP2 project in Louisiana. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that more export capacity will drive up the prices and sales volume of US gas producers.

Trump also said he would end the Biden administration's restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired and natural gas power plants and extend the lives of more fossil-fuel-burning power plants. Trump wants to ease the overall regulatory burden on energy companies, which will help these companies cut costs.

Trump, however, is unlikely to persuade US oil producers to increase production significantly. Oil production in the US is already at a record high, and oil producers' shareholders will reject requests to increase production at the expense of dividends and share repurchases.

Edit/rice