CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898):RESULTS BEAT ON EFFECTIVE COST REDUCTION
CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898):RESULTS BEAT ON EFFECTIVE COST REDUCTION
Coal production and sales volume were stable. In 1-3Q24, commercial3Q24 results beat our expectations
24 年第 3 季度的业绩超出了我们的预期
China Coal Energy announced its 1-3Q24 results: Attributable net profit fell 12.4% YoY to Rmb14.6bn, implying EPS of Rmb1.10. Recurring attributable net profit fell 12.9% YoY to Rmb14.4bn.
中煤能源公布了其 1-3Q24 业绩：应占净利润同比下降12.4％，至人民币146亿元，这意味着每股收益为1.10元人民币。经常性归属净利润同比下降12.9％至人民币144亿元。
In 3Q24, attributable net profit fell 0.6% YoY but rose 0.2% QoQ to Rmb4.83bn. Recurring attributable net profit fell 1.0% YoY but rose 0.1% QoQ to Rmb4.77bn. The 3Q24 earnings remained stable and beat our expectations, mainly due to better-than-expected cost reduction.
在24年第三季度，应占净利润同比下降0.6％，但环比增长0.2％，至人民币48.3亿元。经常性应占净利润同比下降1.0％，但环比增长0.1％，至47.7亿元人民币。24年第三季度的收益保持稳定，超出了我们的预期，这主要是由于成本降幅好于预期。
Coal production and sales volume were stable. In 1-3Q24, commercial
煤炭产量和销售量保持稳定。在 1-3Q24 中，商业版
coal output rose 1.1% YoY to 102.31mnt, with thermal coal and coking coal output up 1.3% and down 0.2% YoY to 93.75mn and 8.56mnt. Sales volume of self-produced coal rose 0.7% YoY to 100.38mnt.
煤炭产量同比增长1.1％，至102.31亿吨，动力煤和炼焦煤产量同比增长1.3％，下降0.2％，至9,375万和856万吨。自产煤炭的销量同比增长0.7％，至100.38亿吨。
In 3Q24, output of commercial coal and sales volume of self-produced coal were 35.81mnt and 34.19mnt, up 5.2% and down 1.8% YoY and up 6.0% and 0.9% QoQ.
在24年第三季度，商品煤的产量和自产煤炭的销售量分别为35.81亿和3419万吨，同比增长5.2％，下降1.8％，环比增长6.0％和0.9％。
Coal prices fell slightly. In 1-3Q24, ASP of self-produced coal fell 5.3% YoY to Rmb571/t, with that of thermal coal and coking coal down 5.5% and 4.3% YoY.
煤炭价格小幅下跌。在 1-3Q24 中，自产煤炭的总销售额同比下降5.3％，至人民币571元/吨，动力煤和炼焦煤的总销售额同比下降5.5％和4.3％。
In 3Q24, ASP of self-produced coal fell 3.2% YoY and 4.3% QoQ to Rmb546/t, with ASP of thermal coal and coking coal down 3.0% and 7.1% YoY, and 4.0% and 5.0% QoQ.
在24年第三季度，自产煤的ASP同比下降3.2％，环比下降4.3％，至人民币546元/吨，其中动力煤和炼焦煤的ASP同比下降3.0％和7.1％，环比下降4.0％和5.0％。
Cost of self-produced coal fell. Cost per tonne of self-produced coal fell 2.8% YoY to Rmb287 in 1-3Q24 (down 1.5% YoY to Rmb229/t excluding freight costs).
自产煤炭的成本下降。在 1-3Q24 中，每吨自产煤炭的成本同比下降2.8％，至人民币287元（不计运费，同比下降1.5％，至人民币229元/吨）。
In 3Q24, cost of self-produced coal fell 12.2% YoY and 6.9% QoQ to Rmb274/t (down 13.9% YoY and 11.5% QoQ to Rmb214/t excluding freight costs).
在24年第三季度，自产煤炭成本同比下降12.2％，环比下降6.9％，至人民币274元/吨（不计运费，同比下降13.9％，环比下降11.5％，至人民币214元/吨）。
Gross profit of the coal chemical business fell 68% YoY and 54% QoQ to Rmb372mn in 3Q24, mainly due to pressure on sales volume
煤化工业务的毛利在24年第三季度同比下降68％，环比下降54％，至人民币3.72亿元，这主要是由于销售量的压力
and prices. Due to production suspension and maintenance, output of major chemicals fell 23.3% YoY and 22.8% QoQ in 3Q24, and sales volume fell 27.1% YoY and 19.5% QoQ, weighing on cost per tonne. In addition, prices of most chemical products fell QoQ in 3Q24 amid falling international oil prices, with prices of polyethylene, polypropylene, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate changing -1.6%, +0.1%, -4.3%, -5.6%, and -7.9% QoQ.
和价格。由于生产暂停和维护，主要化学品的产量在24年第三季度同比下降23.3％，环比下降22.8％，销售量同比下降27.1％，环比下降19.5％，拖累每吨成本。此外，由于国际油价下跌，大多数化工产品的价格在24年第三季度环比下跌，聚乙烯、聚丙烯、尿素、甲醇和硝酸铵的价格环比上涨了-1.6％、+0.1％、-4.3％、-5.6％和-7.9％。
Trends to watch Coal prices to be supported in 4Q24. In 3Q24, the spot price of
关注煤炭价格的趋势将在24年第四季度得到支撑。在24年第三季度，现货价格为
Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal was flat YoY and down 1.9% QoQ, and the long- term contract price at ports was largely flat YoY and QoQ. The price of 1/3 coking coal at ports fell 11% YoY and 10% QoQ. The decline in prices of self-produced coal was relatively limited. Since October, the spot price of thermal coal at ports has rebounded by about Rmb10/t compared with 3Q24, and price of 1/3 coking coal has rebounded by around Rmb20/t.
秦皇岛5,500千卡同比持平，环比下降1.9％，港口的长期合同价格同比和环比基本持平。港口1/3炼焦煤的价格同比下降11％，环比下降10％。自产煤炭价格的下降相对有限。自10月份以来，港口动力煤的现货价格与24季度相比已经反弹了约10元人民币/吨，1/3炼焦煤的价格反弹了约20元人民币/吨。
Looking ahead, we believe the peak season for thermal coal and marginally improving non-power demand will support coal prices.
展望未来，我们认为动力煤的旺季和非电力需求的略有改善将支撑煤炭价格。
Financials and valuation
财务和估值
We maintain our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts for China Coal A- shares and H-shares. China Coal A-shares are trading at 9.8x 2024e and 9.6x 2025e P/E, and H-shares at 6.0x 2024e and 5.8x 2025e P/E.
我们维持对中煤A股和H股的2024年和2025年收益预测。中煤A股市盈率为2024年的9.8倍和2025年的9.6倍，H股的市盈率为2024年的6.0倍和2025年的5.8倍。
Maintain OUTPERFORM rating for A-shares and H-shares. We maintain our TP for A-shares at Rmb15.00, implying 11.2x 2024e and 10.9x 2025e P/E, offering 13% upside. We maintain our TP for H-shares at HK$11.00, implying 7.0x 2024e and 6.8x 2025e P/E, offering 16% upside.
维持A股和H股跑赢大盘的评级。我们将A股的目标价维持在15.00元人民币，这意味着2024年市盈率为11.2倍，2025年市盈率为10.9倍，上涨幅度为13％。我们将H股的目标价维持在11.00港元，这意味着2024年的市盈率为7.0倍，2025年市盈率为6.8倍，上涨幅度为16％。
Risks
风险
Disappointing demand recovery; sharper-than-expected impairment.
需求复苏令人失望；减值幅度超出预期。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。
