HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) will announce its third-quarter results for this year on next Tuesday (the 29th), as its Asia business faces macroeconomic and interest rate challenges. Morgan Stanley reported earlier this month that HSBC's attributable pre-tax profit for the third quarter of 2024 is expected to increase by 2% to $7.882 billion annually, with quarterly provisions dropping by 16% annually to $0.902 billion. The bank expects HSBC to announce a quarterly dividend of 10 cents per share, along with an additional $3 billion buyback plan, and is monitoring updates from HSBC management on the 2026 capital return plan.

The bank stated that this quarter's performance by HSBC is the first since CEO Ashiq Jai took office, with the market watching closely for any strategic changes under his leadership, anticipating adjustments. The bank also mentioned that market interest rate expectations have fallen by 25 to 50 basis points since the summer, and guidance from management on next year's net interest income will be crucial. The bank does not expect management to change annual cost guidance in response to quarterly performance, i.e., a 5% annual increase. The market will look to HSBC management for the latest operational, dividend, and restructuring guidance, with the bank forecasting a 4% annual increase. The bank rates HSBC as "shareholding" with a target price of 76.8 yuan.

The following table shows Morgan Stanley's forecast for HSBC's third-quarter performance this year:

Item│Q3 2024 Forecast│Year-on-year Change

Net Operating Income Before Provision, including insurance business performance and acquisition income│$16.206 billion│-1%

-Net Interest Income│$8.088 billion│-12.5%

Total Provisions│$0.902 billion│-16%

Attributable Pre-tax Profit│$7.882 billion│+2%

Dividend per share: 10 cents, unchanged.

Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for common equity: 14.9%, roughly unchanged.