CHINA COAL ENERGY(01898.HK):RESULTS BEAT ON EFFECTIVE COST REDUCTION
CHINA COAL ENERGY(01898.HK):RESULTS BEAT ON EFFECTIVE COST REDUCTION
Coal production and sales volume were stable. In 1-3Q24, commercial coal output rose 1.1% YoY to 102.31mnt, with thermal coal and coking coal output up 1.3% and down 0.2% YoY to 93.75mn and 8.56mnt. Sales volume of self-produced coal rose 0.7% YoY to 100.38mnt.3Q24 results beat our expectations
第3季度24財年結果超出我們的預期
China Coal Energy announced its 1-3Q24 results: Attributable net profit fell 12.4% YoY to Rmb14.6bn, implying EPS of Rmb1.10. Recurring attributable net profit fell 12.9% YoY to Rmb14.4bn.
中煤能源宣佈其1-3Q24年度業績：歸屬淨利潤同比下降12.4%，達到人民幣146億，暗示每股收益爲人民幣1.10。經常性歸屬淨利潤同比下降12.9%，達到人民幣144億。
In 3Q24, attributable net profit fell 0.6% YoY but rose 0.2% QoQ to Rmb4.83bn. Recurring attributable net profit fell 1.0% YoY but rose 0.1% QoQ to Rmb4.77bn. The 3Q24 earnings remained stable and beat our expectations, mainly due to better-than-expected cost reduction.
在3Q24，歸屬淨利潤同比下降0.6%，但較上季度環比上升0.2%，達到人民幣48.3億。經常性歸屬淨利潤同比下降1.0%，但較上季度環比上升0.1%，達到人民幣47.7億。3Q24年度收益保持穩定，並超出我們的預期，主要是由於成本降低超出預期。
Coal production and sales volume were stable. In 1-3Q24, commercial coal output rose 1.1% YoY to 102.31mnt, with thermal coal and coking coal output up 1.3% and down 0.2% YoY to 93.75mn and 8.56mnt. Sales volume of self-produced coal rose 0.7% YoY to 100.38mnt.
煤炭生產和銷售量保持穩定。在1-3Q24年，商業煤炭產量同比增長1.1%，達到1.0231億噸，動力煤和焦炭產量分別同比增長1.3%和下降0.2%，分別爲9375萬噸和856萬噸。自產煤銷售量同比增長0.7%，達到1.0038億噸。
In 3Q24, output of commercial coal and sales volume of self-produced coal were 35.81mnt and 34.19mnt, up 5.2% and down 1.8% YoY and up 6.0% and 0.9% QoQ.
在3Q24，商業煤炭產量和自產煤銷售量分別爲3581萬噸和3419萬噸，同比增長5.2%和下降1.8%，環比增長6.0%和0.9%。
Coal prices fell slightly. In 1-3Q24, ASP of self-produced coal fell 5.3% YoY to Rmb571/t, with that of thermal coal and coking coal down 5.5% and 4.3% YoY.
煤價略有下降。在1-3Q24年，自產煤平均銷售價格同比下降5.3%，爲人民幣571元/噸，其中動力煤和焦炭價格分別同比下降5.5%和4.3%。
In 3Q24, ASP of self-produced coal fell 3.2% YoY and 4.3% QoQ to Rmb546/t, with ASP of thermal coal and coking coal down 3.0% and 7.1% YoY, and 4.0% and 5.0% QoQ.
在3Q24，自產煤平均銷售價格同比下降3.2%，環比下降4.3%，爲人民幣546元/噸，其中動力煤和焦炭價格分別同比下降3.0%和7.1%，環比分別下降4.0%和5.0%。
Cost of self-produced coal fell. Cost per tonne of self-produced coal fell 2.8% YoY to Rmb287 in 1-3Q24 (down 1.5% YoY to Rmb229/t excluding freight costs).
自產煤成本下降。在1-3Q24年，自產煤每噸成本同比下降2.8%，達到人民幣287元（排除運費後，每噸成本同比下降1.5%，達到人民幣229元）。
In 3Q24, cost of self-produced coal fell 12.2% YoY and 6.9% QoQ to Rmb274/t (down 13.9% YoY and 11.5% QoQ to Rmb214/t excluding freight costs).
2024年第三季度，自產煤炭成本同比下降12.2％，環比下降6.9％至274元/噸（不包括運費成本，同比下降13.9％，環比下降11.5％至214元/噸）。
Gross profit of the coal chemical business fell 68% YoY and 54% QoQ to Rmb372mn in 3Q24, mainly due to pressure on sales volume and prices. Due to production suspension and maintenance, output of major chemicals fell 23.3% YoY and 22.8% QoQ in 3Q24, and sales volume fell 27.1% YoY and 19.5% QoQ, weighing on cost per tonne. In addition, prices of most chemical products fell QoQ in 3Q24 amid falling international oil prices, with prices of polyethylene, polypropylene, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate changing -1.6%, +0.1%, -4.3%, -5.6%, and -7.9% QoQ.
煤化工業務的毛利潤在2024年第三季度同比下降68％，環比下降54％至人民幣3.72億元，主要是由於銷量和價格受壓。由於生產暫停和維護，主要化學品產量在2024年第三季度同比下降23.3％，環比下降22.8％，銷量同比下降27.1%，環比下降19.5%，對每噸成本產生影響。此外，隨着國際油價下跌，大部分化工產品在2024年第三季度環比下跌，聚乙烯、聚丙烯、尿素、甲醇和硝酸銨價格環比分別下降-1.6％、+0.1％、-4.3％、-5.6％和-7.9％。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Coal prices to be supported in 4Q24. In 3Q24, the spot price of Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal was flat YoY and down 1.9% QoQ, and the long- term contract price at ports was largely flat YoY and QoQ. The price of 1/3 coking coal at ports fell 11% YoY and 10% QoQ. The decline in prices of self-produced coal was relatively limited. Since October, the spot price of thermal coal at ports has rebounded by about Rmb10/t compared with 3Q24, and price of 1/3 coking coal has rebounded by around Rmb20/t.
煤炭價格將在2024年第四季度得到支撐。2024年第三季度，秦皇島5500大卡現貨價格同比持平，環比下降1.9％，港口長期合同價格同比和環比基本持平。港口1/3焦炭價格同比下降11％，環比下降10％。自產煤價格下降幅度相對有限。自10月以來，港口動力煤現貨價格較第三季度上漲約10元/噸，1/3焦煤價格上漲約20元/噸。
Looking ahead, we believe the peak season for thermal coal and marginally improving non-power demand will support coal prices.
展望未來，我們相信動力煤的旺季和邊際改善的非電力需求將支撐煤炭價格。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
We maintain our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts for China Coal A- shares and H-shares. China Coal A-shares are trading at 9.8x 2024e and 9.6x 2025e P/E, and H-shares at 6.0x 2024e and 5.8x 2025e P/E. Maintain OUTPERFORM rating for A-shares and H-shares. We maintain our TP for A-shares at Rmb15.00, implying 11.2x 2024e and 10.9x 2025e P/E, offering 13% upside. We maintain our TP for H-shares at HK$11.00, implying 7.0x 2024e and 6.8x 2025e P/E, offering 16% upside.
我們保持對中煤能源A股和H股2024年和2025年盈利預測不變。中煤能源A股的2024年預期市盈率爲9.8倍，2025年爲9.6倍，H股的2024年爲6.0倍，2025年爲5.8倍。我們認爲A股和H股的表現良好。我們將A股的目標價格維持在人民幣15.00元，意味着2024年預期市盈率爲11.2倍，2025年爲10.9倍，上漲空間爲13％。我們將H股的目標價格維持在11.00港元，意味着2024年預期市盈率爲7.0倍，2025年爲6.8倍，上漲空間爲16％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing demand recovery; sharper-than-expected impairment.
需求恢復令人失望；減值超預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
