The Shenzhen property market has returned to a crossroads, with one side experiencing hot subscription and transactions, while the other side has second-hand homeowners actively listing their properties.

As if overnight, we are back to the eve of a profound transformation in the real estate market in 2021.

Market divergence

The sense of fracture in the Shenzhen real estate market is mainly reflected in three aspects—

1. New homes and second-hand homes are hot

To what extent is it hot?

Out-of-town buyers are taking flights to Shenzhen to buy houses. It is expected that the new house subscription volume in Shenzhen in October will exceed tens of thousands, and the weekly turnover of second-hand houses in Shenzhen has reached a nearly 3-year high, indicating that the turnover is taking off and becoming a hot search tag.

Even developers dare to release posters with red envelopes, discounts, and even price increases.

It seems that the real estate market has directly transitioned from a downturn to a hot market.

For example, data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association shows that in the second week of October, there were 2316 second-hand houses sold in a single week, reaching a historical high in turnover in nearly 3 years.

For example, data from the Leyoujia platform shows that as of October 22, the cumulative subscription volume of new residential houses in Shenzhen has reached 8405 units, already reaching the "hollow prosperity line" of Shenzhen's trading volume. It is expected to exceed tens of thousands by the end of the month.

For example, data from the Leyoujia platform shows that from October 1st to the 21st, the cumulative number of second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen reached 5005 units, and it is expected to exceed 7000 units for the entire month.

From a data perspective, the red-hot situation and surprises are no longer as simple as "small spring".

Those familiar with the market trends in Shenzhen over the years know that in years of accelerated real estate market, the monthly transactions of second-hand houses mostly range from five to six thousand units, and even months exceeding seven to eight thousand units are not considered high.

This was the case even during the hot phase from 2020 to the first half of 2021.

2. Constantly stocking up on newly listed houses.

On one hand, there is a rapid increase in transactions, while on the other hand, there is a quick rise in the number of properties listed for sale.

Since the lifting of sale restrictions, the speed of listing second-hand houses has rapidly increased.

According to the data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, the number of second-hand houses listed for sale increased from 63,871 units on September 23, 2024, to 67,750 units on October 21, 2024. In less than a month, the inventory of second-hand houses for sale increased by 3,879 units.

Among them, popular and benchmark properties from the previous two years were also quickly put on the market.

Residences such as Financial Street Holdings Hua Fa Rongyu, Hongfa Wan Yue Shan, Hyde Garden, Wan Feng Coast City, Runxi Phase One and Phase Two, in the past, were basically only available through various plugins, with one house in short supply.

Projects like Financial Street Holdings Hua Fa Rongyu, Hongfa Wan Yue Shan, Wan Feng Coast City, and Runxi Phase One, which attracted thousands of people scrambling for new projects, were all phenomenon-level projects at the time.

Now, although each project has few properties on the market, it also reflects the extent of the change in the mentality of homeowners in just two years.

3. Homeowners who are losing money

In the past two years, the general consensus is that those who bought in 2017 should be fine, not too miserable. After all, they survived the take-off stage of the real estate market in 2018, 2019, and 2020, with relatively low costs and prices.

However, in reality, even those who bought in 2017, if they chose a location outside the city, will pay a very high price.

On social platforms, there are homeowners who chose Longgang Central City in 2017, with a total price of 3.61 million, but the latest filling price for the same layout is now less than 3 million, including interest, they have already lost over 1 million.

Not only that, choosing Longgang has brought a lot of commuting pressure, significantly reducing the quality of life.

It is worth mentioning that Longgang Central City is already one of the areas with high development and cost-effectiveness in Longgang, and it cannot bring more positive feedback to homeowners.

Therefore, the group with limited budget who chose "Yuanda Xin" seven or eight years ago may not necessarily be able to escape the cycle of changes.

For many people, buying a house is a matter that ties together life and living. If one has not thought through what kind of life they will face after buying, they really need to be very cautious.

The year-end supply is fixed.

In fact, the market has this structure mainly because there are divergences in everyone's expectations and judgments, especially regarding the trend and pre-forecast of the future market.

If you want to predict or analyze the future changes in the market, you can actually infer the market rhythm one or two years later based on the annual preview of Shenzhen's new home supply.

First of all, the general trend is that Shenzhen is slowing down its supply rhythm.

Whether it's the sale of less than 5 plots of land within the year, or the new home supply within the year.

The sale of new plots is almost drastically shrinking.

With the exposure of the market entry plan in the fourth quarter, this year's new home supply in Shenzhen has also been determined.

According to the official list of commodity housing projects planned to enter the market in the fourth quarter of 2024 today, there are only 31 residential properties in the fourth quarter, with an estimated supply of about 11,180 residential units.

This is just the planned quantity on the list. Due to factors such as the progress of new home construction and the approval process for market entry, each project may still have variable delays.

For example, the planned supply for the third quarter was 14,955 units, but only 7,105 units were actually supplied, not only because developers were also waiting for the right time to launch.

The plan for the first quarter is 9,194 units, the second quarter is 7,845 units, and the third quarter is 14,955 units, so the total plan for the year is 43,174 units.

Compared to the plans for the previous three to four years, more than ten thousand units are missing.

The current new houses basically amount to over fifty thousand units, which is about a year's supply in Shenzhen.

Basically, it can also be inferred that the selection range for new houses in Shenzhen next year will be much smaller.

Combining lower down payment ratios, lower mortgage rates, according to the current forecasting, the trend will be even more pronounced the following year.

Once in 2018, the inventory of new residential properties in Shenzhen dropped to a new low after 2010, also setting the stage for the revival of the new housing market in 2019.

Therefore, returning to the shortage phase of new houses from 2016 to 2018 is almost foreseeable.

Author: Flying Sky Little Policewoman