Kenanga Lowers 2025 CPI Forecast Based On New RON95 Subsidy Move
Kenanga Lowers 2025 CPI Forecast Based On New RON95 Subsidy Move
Communication (0.4%; Aug: 0.5%): eased to a three-month low, driven by a continued decrease in mobile phone equipment prices (-2.2%; Aug: -1.9%), likely reflecting price cuts following the iPhone 16 release in September. Food & non-alcoholic beverages (1.6%; Aug: 1.6%): stayed flat for the third consecutive month, as higher meat and fish prices were offset by lower egg and fruit prices.Headline inflation dipped to a six-month low of 1.8% YoY in September (Aug: 1.9%), marginally below both forecast
and the market consensus of 1.9%. While food prices continued to rise, maintaining a steady growth rate of 0.1% MoM (Aug: 0.1%), declines in other categories like transport, communication, household equipment, and healthcare pulled inflation lower.
頭版通貨膨脹率在9月份降至1.8%，爲六個月以來的最低水平（8月：1.9%），略低於預測和市場共識的1.9%。
儘管食品價格繼續上漲，維持穩定的0.1%的月環比增長率（8月：0.1%），但交通、通訊、家用設備和醫療保健等其他類別的價格下跌導致通脹率下降。
Notably, core inflation also eased, matching the headline rate of 1.8% (Aug: 1.9%), with a stagnant growth rate of 0.0% MoM,
reflecting subdued price pressures across most subsectors. The core transport prices rose slightly to 2.3% (Aug: 2.2%).
值得注意的是，核心通脹率也有所放緩，與頭版通脹率持平達到1.8%（8月：1.9%），月環比保持不變爲0.0%，反映了大多數子部門的價格壓力較爲低迷。核心交通價格略微上漲至2.3%（8月：2.2%）。
跟之頭版通脹率相匹配的核心通脹率爲1.8%（8月：1.9%），月環比增長率停滯爲0.0%，反映出大多數細分領域的價格壓力較爲低迷。核心交通價格略微上漲至2.3%（8月：2.2%）。
Declining transport and communication costs offset food price gains
− Transport (1.1%; Aug: 1.3%): moderated to a four-month low, driven by lower fuel & lubricant prices (0.4%; Aug: 1.2%)
and a decline in petrol price (-0.5%; Aug: 0.0%) amid a drop in global Brent crude oil price (average Sep: USD72.9/barrel
(bbl); Aug: 78.9/bbl).
交通和通訊成本的下降抵消了食品價格的漲幅。
− 交通（1.1%；8月：1.3%）：降至四個月的低點，主要受到較低的燃料和潤滑油價格的推動（0.4%；8月：1.2%）。
以及全球Brent原油價格下跌（9月平均：每桶72.9美元；8月：每桶78.9美元），導致汽油價格下降（-0.5%；8月：0.0%）。
銀行和通訊成本的下降抵消了食品價格的漲幅。
Communication (0.4%; Aug: 0.5%): eased to a three-month low, driven by a continued decrease in mobile phone equipment prices (-2.2%; Aug: -1.9%), likely reflecting price cuts following the iPhone 16 release in September. Food & non-alcoholic beverages (1.6%; Aug: 1.6%): stayed flat for the third consecutive month, as higher meat and fish prices were offset by lower egg and fruit prices.
通訊（0.4％；8月：0.5％）：降至三個月低點，主要受移動電話設備價格持續下降（-2.2％；8月：-1.9％）的影響，可能反映了9月份iPhone 16發佈後的降價情況。食品和非酒精飲料（1.6％；8月：1.6％）：連續第三個月保持不變，因爲家畜肉類和魚類價格上漲被雞蛋和水果價格下跌抵消。
2025 headline CPI forecast revised down to 2.7% from 3.5%; inflation likely to slow to 1.9% in 2024 (2023: 2.5%)− Despite upward pressures from global and domestic factors—such as geopolitical tensions, climate change, subsidy reforms, and the withdrawal of EPF's flexible account—Malaysia's inflation is expected to average below 2.0% in 2024.
2025年總體消費者價格指數預測從3.5％下調至2.7％；通貨膨脹預計將在2024年放緩至1.9％（2023年：2.5％）- 儘管受到全球和國內因素的上行壓力影響，如地緣政治緊張局勢、氣候變化、補貼改革和公積金彈性帳戶撤回，馬來西亞的通貨膨脹預計將在2024年平均低於2.0％。
In view of the latest DOSM report, Kenanga Investment Bank is revising its 2025 outlook lower to 2.7% from 3.5%, which it said reflects the government's decision to limit RON95 subsidy rationalisation to the top 15%, which should moderate inflationary pressures. This adjustment is further supported by expectations of a weaker Brent and a stronger ringgit.
根據最新的部門統計局報告，肯仰投資銀行將其2025年展望從3.5％下調至2.7％，稱這反映了政府決定將RON95補貼合理化限制在前15％，這應有助於緩解通貨膨脹壓力。這一調整得到了對布倫特原油價格走低和馬來西亞令吉走強的預期的進一步支持。
However, the house added that the domestic wage hikes and escalating Middle East tensions could reignite upward pressure on prices. While inflation remains relatively stable and growth prospects solid, Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, keeping rates unchanged as it monitors evolving global conditions.
然而，該機構補充稱，國內工資上漲和中東緊張局勢升級可能重新點燃價格上行壓力。儘管通貨膨脹保持相對穩定且增長前景良好，馬來西亞銀行預計將採取觀望態度，保持利率不變，以監測不斷演變的全球形勢。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
