稀土永磁需求快速增长，公司把握机遇快速扩产有望受益市场增长。根据弗若斯特沙利文的报告，高性能稀土永磁材料的全球消费量由 2018 年的 4.75 万吨增至 2023 年的 10.25 万吨，复合年增长率约为 16.6%。到 2028 年全球高性能稀土永磁的消费量将达到 22.71 万吨，2023 年至 2028 年的复合年增长率为17.2%。预计到2025 年公司钕铁硼毛坯产能扩张到40000 吨，另外还在墨西哥规划投资建设“墨西哥新建年产 100 万台/套磁组件生产线项目”，未来有望受益市场增长。Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report, and performance rebounded sharply from month to month. The company's Q3 2024 revenue was 1.653 billion yuan, +1.99%; net profit to mother was 77.2065 million yuan, -52.24% year over year, +329.29% month on month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 55.2409 million yuan, -63.25% year over year. The company's Q1-Q3 revenue in 2024 was 5.014 billion yuan, -0.72%; net profit to mother was 0.197 billion yuan, -60.17% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 89.2455 million yuan, -79.63% year over year.
The company's Q1-Q3 2024 was affected by a sharp drop in the price of rare earth raw materials, intensified competition in the superposition industry, and short-term pressure on profits. Affected by factors such as the sharp year-on-year decline in the market price of rare earth raw materials (taking praseodymium metal (price including tax) as an example, the average price from January to September 2024 was 0.4752 million yuan/ton, down about 28.69% from the average price of 0.6664 million yuan/ton in the same period in 2023), lagging changes in raw material costs, and increased competition in the industry.
The production and sales volume of the company's products has increased dramatically. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company relied on sufficient on-hand orders to actively increase its market share. The company's capacity utilization rate exceeded 90%, and the production and sales volume of high-performance magnetic products increased by about 40% year-on-year.
Demand for rare earth permanent magnets is growing rapidly, and the company is expected to seize the opportunity to rapidly expand production and benefit from market growth. According to Frost & Sullivan's report, global consumption of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials increased from 0.0475 million tons in 2018 to 0.1025 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of about 16.6%. Global consumption of high-performance rare earth permanent magnets will reach 0.2271 million tons by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.2% from 2023 to 2028. The company's NdFeB blank production capacity is expected to expand to 40,000 tons by 2025. In addition, it is also planning to invest in the construction of a “new production line project with an annual output of 1 million units/magnetic module in Mexico”, which is expected to benefit from market growth in the future.
Profit forecast: Due to the sharp drop in rare earth prices, we lowered the company's profit forecast. The total revenue for 2024-2026 is 6.507/8.785/10.825 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother is 0.335/0.602/0.869 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to 62.08/ 34.57/23.94 times PE in 24-26. It is predicted that the company's performance will increase with the release of production capacity. As an industry leader, the company is leading in technology, expanding production rapidly, and maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: competition in the NdFeB magnet industry intensifies; the company's production capacity construction falls short of expectations; the company's technological innovation capability falls short of expectations
