Verizon Faces Slower Growth, Declining Cash Flow in 2025, Analyst Downgrades Stock
Verizon Faces Slower Growth, Declining Cash Flow in 2025, Analyst Downgrades Stock
Keybanc Captial Markets analyst Brandon Nispel downgraded Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ) stock from Overweight to Sector Weight.
Keybanc Capital Markets的分析師Brandon Nispel將Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ)股票的評級從超重調降至板塊權重。
Nispel rerated and reduced his estimates following weaker-than-expected results. While the analyst's prior outlook largely remains, he adjusted his rating based on limited EBITDA growth potential for 2025 (projected at 1.5% compared to 2.2% in 2024) and a likely decline in free cash flow (expected to fall to $17.5 billion in 2025 from $20.2 billion in 2024).
Nispel重新評級並下調了其估值,因爲其預期結果不及預期。儘管分析師之前的展望基本保持不變,但他根據2025年的有限EBITDA增長潛力(預計爲1.5%,而2024年爲2.2%)以及自由現金流可能下降(預計從2024年的202億美元下降至2025年的175億美元)調整了評級。
Verizon's potential acquisition of Frontier Communications Parent, Inc (NASDAQ:FYBR), which he noted as a poor capital allocation decision, and slowing improvements in postpaid phone net additions combined with higher device subsidies, indicated higher costs for the same growth.
Verizon潛在收購Frontier Communications Parent, Inc (NASDAQ:FYBR)的舉動被認爲是一項糟糕的資本配置決定,合併博遜手機淨新增用戶增長放緩以及設備補貼上升,表明相同增長成本上升。
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Nispel expects limited EBITDA acceleration in 2025, barring significant price adjustments. Free cash flow is expected to decline to $17.5 billion due to increased capital expenditures (with 2025 guidance at around $18 billion) and higher cash taxes, with minimal offsets from lower interest expenses or restructuring efforts.
Nispel預計2025年有限的EBITDA加速,除非進行重大的價格調整。預計由於增加的資本支出(2025年指導約爲180億美元)和更高的現金稅,自由現金流將下降至175億美元,抵消較低的利息支出或重組工作的最小抵消空間。
The analyst noted Verizon's acquisition of Frontier Communications will restrict its ability to repurchase shares in the near term, which could otherwise generate a 6%+ yield. He considered share repurchases a better capital allocation strategy than the Frontier Communications deal, which he expects offers a 6% internal rate of return but carries more risk.
分析師指出,Verizon收購Frontier Communications將限制其在短期內回購股票的能力,否則可能會帶來超過6%的收益率。他認爲回購股票是一種比Frontier Communications交易更好的資本配置策略,後者預計提供6%的內部收益率,但風險卻更大。
While Verizon is shifting from negative to positive postpaid phone net additions, device subsidies have increased, suggesting that the cost of growth is rising, Nispel said.
Nispel表示,儘管Verizon正在從淨新增用戶數轉爲正數,但設備補貼增加,表明增長的成本正在上升。
Verizon maintained its 2024 guidance of 2.0%-3.5% year-over-year wireless service revenue growth and 1.0%-3.0% adjusted EBITDA growth, expecting results to hit or exceed the midpoints. Capital spending guidance remains $17.0 billion-$17.5 billion. For 2025, the analyst expects decelerating wireless revenue growth, lower EBITDA growth of around 2% and declining free cash flow due to higher capital spending and taxes.
Verizon保持其2024年無線服務營收同比增長2.0%-3.5%和調整後的EBITDA增長1.0%-3.0%的指導,預計結果將達到或超過中點。資本支出指導仍保持在170億美元至175億美元。對於2025年,分析師預計無線營收增長放緩,大約爲2%,以及由於更高的資本支出和稅金,自由現金流下降。
The analyst's fair value of $42 reflects a multiple of 6.5 times his 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimates, compared to industry averages of 6.4 times for cable companies and 7.4 times for telecoms.
分析師的42美元公允價值反映出對他2025年調整後的EBITDA估值的6.5倍,而有線電視公司的行業平均值爲6.4倍,電信公司爲7.4倍。
Nispel expects fourth-quarter revenue of $35.36 billion and EBITDA of $11.98 billion. The analyst expects fiscal 2024 revenue of $134.47 billion and EBITDA of $48.85 billion. He projects fiscal 2025 revenue of $136.36 billion and EBITDA of $49.6 billion.
Nispel預計第四季度營業收入爲353.6億美元,EBITDA爲119.8億美元。分析師預計2024財年營業收入爲1344.7億美元,EBITDA爲488.5億美元。他預測2025財年營業收入爲1363.6億美元,EBITDA爲496億美元。
Verizon stock lost close to 5% in the last five days.
Verizon股價在過去五天內下跌了近5%。
Price action: VZ stock is down 2.48% at $41.80 at publication on Thursday.
價格走勢:週四出版時,VZ股價下跌2.48%,報41.80美元。
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Photo: JHVE Photo via Shutterstock
照片:JHVE照片,來源於shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。