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INNOLIGHT(300308):SOLID 3Q WITH INTACT NEAR-TERM PROSPECTS;MAINTAIN BUY

INNOLIGHT(300308):SOLID 3Q WITH INTACT NEAR-TERM PROSPECTS;MAINTAIN BUY

INNOLIGHT(300308):穩健的第三季度,前景良好;維持買入
2024/10/24 07:52

Innolight released its 3Q results. Revenue went up by 115.2% YoY/9.4% QoQ, while net profit went up by 104.4% YoY/3.3% QoQ, in-line with our expectations.

旭創公佈了第三季度業績。收入同比增長115.2%/環比增長9.4%,而淨利潤同比增長104.4%/環比增長3.3%,符合我們的預期。

Mgmt. attributed the slower sequential revenue growth (9.4% in 3Q24 vs. 31.3%/23% in 1Q/2Q24) to two main factors: 1) supply chain bottlenecks of key components (like DSPs & EMLs), and 2) unfavorable fluctuations in the USD/RMB exchange rate during 3Q. Excluding the impact of exchange rate movements, the company still achieved double-digit revenue growth in 3Q. GPM remained steady at 33.3% in 3Q24 (vs. 33.4%/33.5% in 2Q24/3Q23), while NPM was 21.4% (vs. 22.7%/22.5% in 2Q24/3Q23). We remain confident in the company's growth trajectory, driven by the ramp-up in 400G/800G shipments and the upcoming production ramp-up of 1.6T products. Maintain BUY, with an adjusted TP of

管理層將連續收入增長放緩(24年第三季度爲9.4%,而第二季度爲31.3%/23%)歸因於兩個主要因素:1)關鍵組件(如DSP和EML)的供應鏈瓶頸,以及2)第三季度美元/人民幣匯率的不利波動。不包括匯率變動的影響,該公司在第三季度仍實現了兩位數的收入增長。GpM在24年第三季度保持穩定在33.3%(相比於23年第二季度/第三季度爲33.4%/33.5%),而nPM爲21.4%(相比於23年第二季度/第三季度爲22.7%/22.5%)。在400G/800G出貨量的增加以及即將到來的1.6萬億件產品產量增加的推動下,我們對公司的增長軌跡仍然充滿信心。維持買入,調整後的目標爲

RMB186, reflecting 26.9x rollover 2025E P/E (previously 30x 2024E P/E).

RMB186,反映了2025年市盈率的26.9倍(之前爲2024年的30倍市盈率)。

Sequential slowdown due to exchange rate and supply chain issues:

由於匯率和供應鏈問題,連續放緩:

The company highlighted that 3Q performance was negatively impacted by unfavourable USD/RMB exchange rate fluctuations. Excluding this impact (~RMB100mn), the company still posted double-digit sequential growth, continuing the strong growth momentum seen in previous quarters.

該公司強調,第三季度業績受到不利的美元/人民幣匯率波動的負面影響。不包括這一影響(約1億元人民幣),該公司仍連續實現兩位數的增長,延續了前幾個季度的強勁增長勢頭。

Additionally, supply chain challenges related to key components constrained shipment growth, with mgmt. noting that order growth outpaced shipment growth, contributing to the slower-than-expected sequential revenue increase.

此外,與關鍵零部件相關的供應鏈挑戰限制了出貨量增長,mgmt. 指出,訂單增長超過了出貨量增長,導致連續收入增長低於預期。

Demand intact, 400G/800G shipments to ramp through 4Q24: Mgmt.

需求完好無損,到24年第四季度400G/800G的出貨量將增加:管理

reiterated strong demand for the company's high-speed optical products, particularly 400G & 800G, which remain key growth drivers. Looking ahead to 2025, the company expects faster adoption of 800G products compared to 400G as customers progress towards newer tech. Additionally, mass shipments of 1.6T products will begin in the coming months. Mgmt. emphasized strong demand from overseas hyperscalers, which contributed to over half of the company's 400G/800G orders in 2024..

重申了對公司高速光學產品的強勁需求,尤其是400G和800G,它們仍然是關鍵的增長動力。展望2025年,該公司預計,隨着客戶向新技術邁進,800G產品的採用速度比400G更快。此外,1.6萬億產品的批量發貨將在未來幾個月內開始。Mgmt. 強調了海外超大規模企業的強勁需求,這爲該公司2024年400G/800G訂單的一半以上做出了貢獻。

Price increases in the optical supply chain driven by AI demand: The

人工智能需求推動的光學供應鏈價格上漲:

recent announcement (link) by Marvell (MRVL US, NR) of price hikes across its entire product line due to sustained AI-driven demand could lead to higher raw material costs for Innolight. However, we believe the company is well- positioned to mitigate these impacts by passing on price increases to its customers, given the strong demand for its products that gives company the bargaining power.

Marvell(MRVL US,NR)最近宣佈,由於持續的人工智能驅動的需求,其整個產品線的價格上漲(鏈接),這可能會導致旭創的原材料成本上漲。但是,我們認爲,鑑於對其產品的強勁需求賦予了公司議價能力,該公司完全有能力通過將價格上漲轉嫁給客戶來減輕這些影響。

Maintain BUY, with TP adjusted to RMB186, corresponding to rollover 26.9x 2025E P/E, the same as its 5-year historical avg. The stock is

維持買入,目標價調整爲 RMB186,相當於展期回報率爲2025年的26.9倍,與其5年曆史平均水平相同。股票是

currently trading at 22.5x 2025E P/E. Risks: 1) China-US trade tensions, 2) rising raw material costs, and 3) weaker-than-expected ramp-up speed.

目前市盈率爲2025年的22.5倍。風險:1)中美貿易緊張局勢,2)原材料成本上漲,3)上漲速度低於預期。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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