ZIJIN MINING(601899):3Q24 RESULTS BEAT MARKET CONSENSUS;QUARTERLY PROFIT HITS NEW HIGH
ZIJIN MINING(601899):3Q24 RESULTS BEAT MARKET CONSENSUS;QUARTERLY PROFIT HITS NEW HIGH
Attributable net profit hit a new high in 3Q24, mainly due to rising sales volume, prices of some products, and higher-than-expected non-recurring income.1-3Q24 results beat market expectations
1-3Q24 業績超出市場預期
In 1-3Q24, revenue rose 2.39% YoY to Rmb230.40bn. Attributable net profit rose 50.68% YoY to Rmb24.36bn. Recurring attributable net profit rose 56.16% YoY to Rmb23.75bn, with basic EPS at Rmb0.92.
在 1-3Q24 中，收入同比增長2.39％，至人民幣2304.0億元。應占淨利潤同比增長50.68％，至243.6億元人民幣。經常性應占淨利潤同比增長56.16％，至237.5億元人民幣，基本每股收益爲0.92元人民幣。
In 3Q24, revenue rose 6% QoQ to Rmb79.98bn, attributable net profit grew 5% QoQ to Rmb9.27bn and recurring net profit attributable to shareholders fell 10% QoQ to Rmb8.31bn, beating market expectations.
24年第三季度，收入環比增長6％，至799.8億元人民幣，應占淨利潤同比增長5％，至92.7億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的經常性淨利潤同比下降10％，至83.1億元人民幣，超出市場預期。
Attributable net profit hit a new high in 3Q24, mainly due to rising sales volume, prices of some products, and higher-than-expected non-recurring income.
歸屬淨利潤在24年第三季度創下新高，這主要是由於銷售量上升、部分產品價格以及非經常性收入高於預期。
Trends to watch Gross profit fell Rmb201mn QoQ in 3Q24, to Rmb16.19bn due to: 1. Gross profit of mine-produced copper fell Rmb1.2bn QoQ amid rising sales volume, falling prices and slight increases in cost. In
值得關注的趨勢24年第三季度毛利潤同比下降2.01億元人民幣，至161.9億元人民幣，原因是：1.由於銷售量增加，價格下降和成本略有增加，礦山生產的銅的毛利潤環比下降了12億元人民幣。在
3Q24, the ASP of mine-produced copper fell 10% QoQ to Rmb57,805/t, and output rose 6% QoQ to 270,899t, mainly driven by the Kamoa and Yulong copper mines. Production cost was up 2% QoQ to Rmb22,885/t.
24年第三季度，礦山生產的銅的ASP同比下降了10％，至人民幣57,805元/噸，產量環比增長了6％，至270899萬億元，這主要是由卡莫阿和玉龍銅礦推動的。生產成本環比上漲2％，至人民幣22,885元/噸。
2. Gross profit of mine-produced gold grew about Rmb331mn QoQ thanks to rising sales volume and prices; cost edged up. In
2。由於銷售量和價格的上漲，礦山生產的黃金的毛利潤環比增長了約3.31億元人民幣；成本小幅上漲。在
3Q24, ASP of mine-produced gold rose 5% QoQ to Rmb537/g, and output rose 1% QoQ to 18.9t, with production cost rising 1% QoQ to Rmb233/g.
24年第三季度，礦山生產的黃金的平均價格環比上漲5％，至人民幣537元/克，產量環比增長1％，至18.9萬億元，生產成本環比上漲1％，至233元人民幣。
3. Gross profit of mine-produced zinc rose Rmb211mn QoQ on rising sales volume and prices of mineral zinc, falling costs. In
3.由於礦物鋅的銷售量和價格的增加以及成本的下降，礦產鋅的毛利潤環比增長了2.11億元人民幣。在
3Q24, ASP of mine-produced zinc rose 1% QoQ to Rmb15,154/t, output rose 8% QoQ to 109,652t and production cost fell 14% QoQ to Rmb7,938/t.
24年第三季度，礦山生產的鋅的ASP同比增長1％，至人民幣15,154萬元，產量環比增長8％，至109652萬億元，生產成本同比下降14％，至人民幣7,938元人民幣。
4. Gross profit of mine-produced silver remained flat QoQ amid rising sales volume and output and falling cost. In 3Q24, ASP of
4。在銷售量和產量增加以及成本下降的情況下，礦山生產的白銀的毛利潤環比持平。在 24 年第 3 季度，ASP
mine-produced silver stayed flat QoQ at Rmb4.85/g, and output rose 12% QoQ to 121t. Production cost was Rmb1.81/g, down 2% QoQ.
礦山生產的白銀環比持平，爲4.85元人民幣，產量環比增長12％，至121萬億元。生產成本爲人民幣1.81元/克，環比下降2％。
In 1-3Q24, output of mine-produced silver exceeded production guidance, while output of mine-produced gold and copper slightly missed expectations. In 1-3Q24, 80%, 73% and 71% of the silver, gold and copper production plans were completed.
在 1-3Q24 中，礦山生產的白銀產量超過了產量預期，而礦山生產的黃金和銅的產量略低於預期。在 1-3Q24 中，80％、73％和71％的銀、金和銅生產計劃已經完成。
Lithium carbonate: Due to the delay in obtaining permits and licenses, the firm has postponed starting production at the Lakkor Tso Salar Project to 2025.
碳酸鋰：由於延遲獲得許可證和執照，該公司已將Lakkor Tso Salar項目的開始生產推遲到2025年。
In terms of non-recurring income, gains and losses from changes in fair value of financial assets (excl. hedging) totaled Rmb1.03bn in 3Q24, giving a significant boost to its attributable net profit.
在非經常性收入方面，金融資產公允價值變動（不包括套期保值）的損益在24年第三季度共計10.3億元人民幣，這極大地提振了其應占淨利潤。
Long-term copper and gold output to rise; the firm plans to become one of the top 3-5 global mining companies at an accelerated pace.
銅和黃金的長期產量將增加；該公司計劃加快步伐成爲全球排名前3-5的礦業公司之一。
In its new five-year plan, the firm has proposed plans and output guidance for 2028, including mine-produced copper output guidance of 1.5-1.6mnt; mine-produced gold output guidance of 100-110t; mine-produced zinc output guidance of 550,000-600,000t; as well as mine-produced silver output guidance of 600-700t; lithium carbonate output guidance of 250,000-300,000t; and mine-produced molybdenum output guidance of 25,000-35,000t, implying significant growth potential.
在新的五年計劃中，該公司提出了2028年的計劃和產量指導，包括礦山生產的銅產量指導爲1.5-1.6萬噸；礦山生產的黃金產量指導爲100-110噸；礦產的鋅產量指導爲550,000-60萬噸；以及礦產的600-700萬噸的白銀產量指導；25000-35000萬噸的礦產鉬產量指導，這意味着巨大的增長潛力。
The firm is expanding its presence in high-quality assets globally, and it acquired the Akyem gold mine in Ghana in October. The firm is also accelerating the transformation of its resource advantages into production capacity and economic advantages, aiming to become one of the global top 3-5 mining companies
該公司正在擴大其在全球高質量資產中的業務，並於10月收購了加納的Akyem金礦。該公司還加速將其資源優勢轉化爲生產能力和經濟優勢，目標是成爲全球排名前3-5的礦業公司之一
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
Given the long-term growth of copper, gold and lithium output and higher- than-expected non-recurring income in 3Q24, we raise our 2024 earnings forecast 3.1% to Rmb32.87bn and maintain our 2025 earnings forecasts of Rmb39.05bn.
鑑於銅、金和鋰產量的長期增長以及24年第三季度的非經常性收入高於預期，我們將2024年的收益預期上調了3.1％，至328.7億元人民幣，並維持了2025年390.5億元人民幣的盈利預期。
We maintain OUTPERFORM ratings and target prices of Rmb23 and HK$21.4 for Zijin Mining A-shares and H-shares. Zijin A-shares are trading at 14.4x 2024e and 12.1x 2025e P/E, and our TP implies 19x 2024e and 16x 2025e P/E, offering 28.9% upside. Zijin Mining H-shares are trading at 12.7x 2024e and 10.4x 2025e P/E and our TP implies 16x 2024e and 13x 2025e P/E, offering 23.4% upside.
我們維持紫金礦業A股和H股的跑贏大盤評級和23元人民幣和21.4港元的目標價。紫金A股的市盈率爲2024年的14.4倍，2025年的市盈率爲12.1倍，而我們的目標是2024年的19倍市盈率和16倍的2025年市盈率，上漲幅度爲28.9％。紫金礦業H股市盈率爲2024年的12.7倍，2025年市盈率爲10.4倍，我們的目標股市盈率爲2024年的16倍和2025年的13倍，上漲幅度爲23.4％。
Risks
風險
Higher-than-expected new supply of copper and zinc mines; disappointing interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve; disappointing capacity expansion.
銅鋅礦的新供應量高於預期；聯儲局減息令人失望；產能擴張令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
