出口方面，工程机械出口增长大体上仍然理想，但重卡出口预计会在主要出口市场俄罗斯在上调进口报废税生效和高基数等因素下转弱。With the introduction of the new package of fiscal increment policies, the outlook for infrastructure and real estate is expected to turn upwards.
According to the statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association on the main forklift manufacturers, in September 2024, a total of 106,002 forklifts were sold, an increase of 6.06% year-on-year. Of these, domestic sales were 62,755 units, a decrease of 5.32% year-on-year; export volume was 43,247 units, an increase of 28.5% year-on-year.
CICC pointed out that the recent market valuation has been raised to a level close to fair value due to the government's shift to a strong policy orientation, to some extent reflecting the expected recovery of the domestic construction machinery and heavy truck sectors at the current level. However, it will take at least a few months for the policy momentum to translate into downstream demand, so it is expected that stock prices in the coming months will be more volatile until substantial data improvements are seen.
On the export front, construction machinery exports are still largely ideal, but heavy truck exports are expected to weaken in the face of factors such as the implementation of an increase in import scrap tax by major export market Russia and a high base number.
Sinolink Securities released a research report stating that the review of the previous three "bull markets" in the machinery industry revealed significant opportunities brought by economic stimulus policies, mergers and restructuring policies, and industry support policies.
Construction machinery downstream is mainly centered around infrastructure, real estate, and mining, each previous round of economic stimulus policies has initiated a new upward cycle. With the introduction of the new package of fiscal increment policies, the outlook for infrastructure and real estate is expected to turn upwards. Meanwhile, considering the mining industry is currently in an upward cycle and the construction machinery sector has strong global competitiveness, it is entering a new era of going global.
Companies related to construction machinery include:
Zoomlion (01157), Lonking (03339), First Tractor (00038), Sany Int'l (00631), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group (00564), Sinotruk (03808), Weichai Power (02338), etc.
