Last week, the chip stock earnings season officially kicked off. However, taiwan semiconductor and asml holding, which released their earnings reports just one day apart, had completely different fates.

$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ In the third quarter, the orders were only half of the market's expectations. Due to weak demand in non-AI fields, the company lowered its 2025 sales guidance. The company's CEO even bluntly stated, 'Without AI, the entire chip market will be very bleak,' dragging down the stock price by nearly 20% after earnings; On the other hand, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Not only did it greatly exceed expectations, but it also raised its 2024 sales guidance, driving some AI chip stocks to stop falling and rise again.

Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, Broadcom, Advanced Micro Devices, Micron Technology and other companies have been the continuous winners in the 'AI era' since 2023, driving the entire sector upwards. However, the internal rift issue has now surfaced. Why has such differentiation occurred within the semiconductor industry? How long will this situation continue?

The rise and fall all depend on AI, is the semiconductor industry facing a 'two-faced' situation?

ASML Holding from the Netherlands is the world's largest scale manufacturer of lithography systems, which play a crucial role in the chip manufacturing process.

The demand for artificial intelligence remains strong, but for semiconductor equipment vendors, the situation is more complicated because their customers are also facing issues such as slowing PC demand, sluggish smart phone sales, and a downturn in the automotive market. Apart from ASML Holding, many other industry peers have also issued warnings signals regarding areas other than artificial intelligence in the chip sector.

The expert from Semiconductor Advisors sharply pointed out that many investors in the market view the huge and dazzling achievements of AI as a bullish signal for the entire semiconductor industry. However, the rise of Nvidia does not mean that all chip stocks will rise together; the latest financial report of semiconductor equipment giant ASML Holding was disappointing, highlighting that the "AI honeymoon period" for the chip equipment industry is over.

"If these hot demands driven by AI meet current expectations, we expect this divergence to continue." Ryuta Makino, a senior analyst from Gabelli Funds, expressed that he expects the differentiation within the semiconductor industry to persist at least until 2025.

Will AI demand spending continue to surge, and are these giants taking it all?

According to Solita Marcelli, an investment officer at UBS Group, it is expected that by 2025, the total sales of chip companies closely related to artificial intelligence will jump from this year's $168 billion to $245 billion. She suggests that clients increase their shareholding in stocks of AI-related chip manufacturers on dips after ASML Holding announces its performance.

The winners closely associated with AI have already received market "votes". Looking at the stock performance, among the components of the PHLX Semiconductor Index with a market cap of over $50 billion, the highest increase during the year is Micron Technology, followed by $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$.

Nvidia may continue to dominate the dominant position as the 'AI leader' for a long time. After a brief decline in stock prices, Nvidia rose over 4% overnight to a new all-time high, with a market cap of over 3.5 trillion approaching Apple.

Previously, well-known technology industry chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that Microsoft's demand for Nvidia's Blackwell GB200 chips in the fourth quarter has surged by 3-4 times. The shipment volume of this chip in Q4 is expected to be between 150,000 and 200,000 units, with an estimated growth of 200% to 250% in the shipment volume in Q1 2025, reaching 500,000 to 550,000 units. This means that Nvidia may achieve the sales target of a million units in just a few quarters. This exactly confirms what Huang Renxun said before, that the demand for Blackwell is very 'crazy'.

然而，华尔街并未因高股价而改变对英伟达的看涨态度。目前分析师对英伟达平均目标价为157美元，距当前最新收盘价仍有接近10%的上升空间；美银等大行给出的目标价甚至直指190-200美元高位。

在AI发展势头下，台积电凭借先进制程的产能，表现同样出色。先是坐拥英伟达、苹果、AMD、英特尔等大客户，甚至微软、谷歌、Meta等公司也需要自供AI芯片降低成本，请台积电为其代工。魏哲家宣称，他的公司“可能是人工智能淘金热中增长最深、最广泛的公司”，因为“几乎所有人工智能创新者”都依赖台积电制造其定制半导体芯片。

AvaTrade 首席市场分析师 Kate Leaman 表示：“在短期到中期内，人工智能应用、数据中心和先进芯片仍将推动强劲需求……因此，虽然阿斯麦可能会经历暂时的放缓，但台积电等公司可能会继续凭借这些高增长领域取得强劲业绩。”

往后看，随着 $Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$N/A.$Intel (INTC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$KLA Corp (KLAC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$ As other semiconductor companies announce their performance in the coming weeks, investors may potentially gain clearer guidance from them.

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