1、军民市场双轮驱动，2024Q3 单季度业绩有所承压。军品领域，公司与国内航空发动机主要厂商集团A、集团B 及其下属多家企业建立起了长期稳定的合作关系，成为其多年的优秀供应商；高端民品领域，公司已入选上海电气汽轮机厂、上海第一机床厂等国内大型企业的合格供应商名录。2024Q1-Q3，公司营收10.80 亿元，同比增长1%，归母净利润2.58 亿元，同比减少1%。2024Q3 单季度，公司营收3.48亿元，同比减少7%，归母净利润0.67 亿元，同比减少19%。occurrences
On October 18, Tunan Co., Ltd. released its 2024 three-quarter report. With 2024Q1-Q3, the company achieved operating income of 1.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, achieved net profit of 0.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, and realized net profit without deduction of 0.258 billion yuan, an increase of 3% over the previous year.
reviews
1. Two-wheel drive in the military and civilian market, 2024Q3's single-quarter results are under pressure. In the military sector, the company has established long-term and stable cooperative relationships with major domestic aero engine manufacturers Group A, Group B, and many of their subsidiaries, and has become its excellent supplier for many years; in the high-end civilian products field, the company has been selected as a qualified supplier list for large domestic enterprises such as Shanghai Electric Steam Turbine Factory and Shanghai No. 1 Machine Tool Factory. 2024Q1-Q3, the company's revenue was 1.08 billion yuan, up 1% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.258 billion yuan, down 1% year on year. In the 2024Q3 quarter, the company's revenue was 0.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, and net profit to mother was 0.067 billion yuan, a decrease of 19% year-on-year.
2. The gross margin of 2024Q1-Q3 increased slightly by 0.22pcts, has good cost control capabilities, and increased R&D investment to lay the foundation for long-term development. 2024Q1-Q3, the company's gross sales margin was 35.83%, up 0.22pcts year-on-year. Among them, the 2024Q3 company's gross sales margin in a single quarter was 30.57%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.12 pcts. On the cost side, 2024Q1-Q3's sales, management, finance, and R&D expenses rates were 0.65%, 3.09%, -0.05%, and 4.90%, respectively, compared with +0.11pcts, +0.04pcts, -0.07pcts, and +1.21pcts, respectively. R&D expenses were 52.93 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%, laying the foundation for the company's long-term development.
3. The company has sufficient orders and is actively preparing for production. At the end of 2023, the company placed orders of 0.603 billion yuan, of which 0.551 billion yuan is expected to confirm revenue in 2024. An abundance of on-hand orders guarantees the company's 2024 results. By the end of 2024Q3, the company's inventory was 0.496 billion yuan, up 0.034 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, and 0.02 billion yuan year-on-year.
4. Business development opens up space for the company to grow. In 2021, the company launched an automated processing production line project for small and medium-sized parts for aviation through its wholly-owned subsidiary Tunan Intelligent Manufacturing; in 2022, the company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Tunan Intelligent Manufacturing to build an automated production line project with an annual output of 10 million pieces of aviation small and medium-sized parts; in 2022, the company participated in the establishment of Shenyang Huaqin, which mainly carries out aero engine parts processing, manufacturing, maintenance, special process treatment and related services; in 2023, the company participated in the establishment of Shanghai Ruihua Xinsheng Materials Co., Ltd., which mainly develops Research and development and industrial construction of ceramic-based composites for aero engines and their structural components. At present, the “Aeronautical Small and Medium Parts Automated Processing Line Construction Project” has been completed and put into operation, forming an annual processing and production capacity of 0.5 million small and medium-sized aviation parts (sets). The project is expected to gradually achieve sales revenue for small and medium-sized aviation parts products by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025.
5. Since this year, the company has implemented two equity distributions for the 2023 and 2024 semi-annual periods, with a total dividend amount of about 0.16 billion yuan, highlighting that the company attaches great importance to shareholder returns. On May 16, the company announced the “2023 Annual Equity Distribution Implementation Notice”, with a total share capital of 395.31 million shares, with a cash distribution of 3.0 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares, with a dividend amount of 0.119 billion yuan; on October 10, the company announced the “2024 Semi-Annual Equity Distribution Implementation Notice”, based on a total share capital of 395.53 million shares, with a dividend amount of RMB 39.55 million.
6. We expect the company's net profit to be 0.37 billion yuan, 0.456 billion yuan, and 562 million yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding to the current PE share price of 27, 22, and 18 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The company's business development fell short of expectations; price reductions for superalloy products exceeded market expectations; industry competition intensified, etc.
