When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may consider Ball Corporation (NYSE:BALL) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 29.5x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Ball's negative earnings growth of late has neither been better nor worse than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company can turn things around and break free from the broader downward trend in earnings. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
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Does Growth Match The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Ball would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with earnings down 14% overall from three years ago. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 20% per year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 10% per year, which is noticeably less attractive.
In light of this, it's understandable that Ball's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
The Key Takeaway
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Ball maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Having said that, be aware Ball is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are a bit concerning.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Ball. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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