Market 'Mega-Bubble' Set To Pop, Says Top Economist Who Called 2008 Crash
Market 'Mega-Bubble' Set To Pop, Says Top Economist Who Called 2008 Crash
Top economist David Rosenberg, known for predicting the 2008 market crash and recession, is sounding the alarm about a potential stock market crash.
著名經濟學家戴維·羅森伯格，因成功預測2008年市場崩盤和經濟衰退而聞名，目前對潛在股市崩盤發出警告。
Mega-Bubble: In recent notes to Rosenberg Research clients, the market bear warned that the current market is in a "mega-bubble" and cautioned investors against chasing momentum.
巨型泡沫：在最近發送給羅森伯格研究客戶的通知中，這位市場熊警告稱當前市場處於"巨型泡沫"，並警告投資者不要追逐勢頭。
"When this mega-bubble pops, it will be spectacular," Rosenberg wrote on Oct. 18. "This is no time to chase momentum or the herd mentality."
"當這個巨型泡沫破裂時，它將是壯觀的。" 羅森伯格在10月18日寫道。"現在不是追逐勢頭或群體思維的時候。"
Warning Signs: Rosenberg cited high valuations, investor positioning and sentiment as warning signs. The most recent AAII Sentiment Survey, which tracks investor sentiment, shows 45.5% of its respondents characterized themselves as bullish, above its historical average of 37.5% for the 49th time in 50 weeks.
警告信號：羅森伯格指出高估值、投資者持倉以及情緒作爲警告信號。最近的AAII情緒調查顯示，45.5%的受訪者自認爲看好，高於其歷史平均水平37.5%，這已經是連續第49週中的第50次。
"This is the mother of all momentum-driven stock markets," he wrote in an October 9 note.
"這是有史以來最具動量的股市，" 他在10月9日的一份筆記中寫道。
Rosenberg warned the S&P 500 is at least 25% higher than fundamentals suggest it should be with stock prices outpacing earnings growth and analyst EPS revisions trending to the downside.
羅森伯格警告稱，標準普爾500指數至少比基本面預示的高出25%，股價超過盈利增長，分析師的每股收益修訂趨於負面。
The economist is bearish on the economy as well as the markets and anticipates a recession on the horizon. Rosenberg pointed to emerging signs of economic weakness, including a rise in unemployment and decreased job openings.
這位經濟學家對經濟和市場持看淡態度，並預期經濟衰退即將來臨。羅森伯格指出出現經濟疲軟的跡象，包括失業率上升和減少的職位空缺。
Rosenberg's warnings come at a time when the S&P 500 has seen significant gains, up 23% year-to-date following gains of 22% in 2023. Investors can track the S&P 500 through funds that track the index's movements, including the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), known as the "Spy," and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:IVV).
羅森伯格的警告出現在標準普爾500指數取得顯著收益的同時，今年迄今上漲23%，繼2023年上漲22%後。投資者可以通過跟蹤指數走勢的基金來跟蹤標準普爾500指數，包括跟蹤該指數走勢的SPDR標準普爾500 (NYSE：SPY)，被稱爲"Spy"，以及iShares Core標準普爾500 ETF (NYSE：IVV)。
Rosenberg cautioned investors against chasing the "overvalued" market and advised clients to preserve capital.
Rosenberg提醒投資者不要追漲"過高估值"市場，並建議客戶保全資本。
"J.P. Morgan reportedly once commented that he got wealthy not by buying at the lows and selling at the highs, but rather by being involved in the middle 60% of the bull market. We are well past that point," Rosenberg wrote.
「J.P. 摩根據稱，他發財並非通過低買高賣，而是參與牛市的中間60%。我們已經遠遠超過那個點，」Rosenberg寫道。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
