Shareholders of Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to US$77.64 following its latest third-quarter results. Fastenal reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$1.9b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.52, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Fastenal's 16 analysts is for revenues of US$8.15b in 2025. This reflects a decent 8.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 9.4% to US$2.20. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$8.09b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.20 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target rose 8.5% to US$72.20despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Fastenal's earnings by assigning a price premium. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Fastenal at US$86.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$51.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Fastenal's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.1% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.1% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.4% per year. So although Fastenal is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Fastenal. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Fastenal going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Fastenal Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.