开源证券指出，权益市场明显改善叠加低基数，预计寿险板块下半年业绩同比增速持续扩张，业绩增速有望超预期。寿险负债端景气度有望延续，停售影响叠加价值率改善下，2024Q3NBV增速有望延续上半年高质量增长，CSM正增长利于后续营运利润释放。稳增长和稳股市政策信号较强，长债利率底部企稳，监管呵护调降负债成本，报行合一持续深化，利差损担忧逐步缓解，2024年ROE提升有望驱动PB估值上行，继续看好寿险板块超额机会。Mainland insurance companies rose in the afternoon, as of the time of publication, New China Life Insurance (01336) rose by 9.74% to HK$27.05; China Pacific Insurance (02601) rose by 5.34% to HK$28.6; China Life Insurance (02628) rose by 4.99% to HK$16.42; Ping An Insurance (02318) rose by 3.55% to HK$49.6.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, mainland insurance companies rose in the afternoon, as of the time of publication, New China Life Insurance (01336) rose by 9.74% to HK$27.05; China Pacific Insurance (02601) rose by 5.34% to HK$28.6; China Life Insurance (02628) rose by 4.99% to HK$16.42; Ping An Insurance (02318) rose by 3.55% to HK$49.6.
On the news front, New China Life Insurance disclosed a previous earnings growth forecast announcement, expecting to achieve a net income attributable to shareholders of 186.07 to 20.515 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 95% to 115%. The company believes that the main reason is the increase in the proportion of equity asset allocation in the first three quarters, benefiting from the high year-on-year growth in investment performance under the rebound of the capital markets, while continuing to optimize the business structure on the liability side.
Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that with the significant improvement in the equity market coupled with a low base, it is expected that the life insurance sector's year-on-year growth rate in the second half of the year will continue to expand, and the performance growth rate is expected to exceed expectations. The prosperity of the life insurance liability side is expected to continue, with the cessation impact compounded by the improvement in value rate, and the growth rate of New Business Value (NBV) in 2024Q3 is expected to continue the high-quality growth in the first half of the year, with positive growth in China Solvency Margin (CSM) benefiting the subsequent release of operating profits. Strong signals for stable growth and stable stock market policies, the bottoming out of long-term interest rates, regulatory protection with reduced cost of liabilities, the continuous deepening of the separation of operations and risk in banking, gradual alleviation of concerns over interest spread losses, and the potential increase in ROE in 2024 are expected to drive the valuation PB upwards, continuing to be bullish on the excess opportunities in the life insurance sector.
