Aerospace Stocks Face Tough Questions: Can Boeing, GE, Airbus Justify Sky-High Valuations?
Aerospace Stocks Face Tough Questions: Can Boeing, GE, Airbus Justify Sky-High Valuations?
"Investor sentiment into 3Q24 A&D results is positive on defense stocks, with concerns about near-term incremental upside after the recent strength for many defense stocks. Sentiment seems universally bullish on the aerospace aftermarket, although these stocks appear about as crowded on the long side as we have seen," the analyst said. "We believe the aero OE outlook is uncertain at best."Defense and aerospace stocks, as tracked by the iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (BATS:ITA) have returned a remarkable 22% year-to-date in 2024; an aerospace expert weighed in on whether companies can keep up with sky-high valuations fueled by tensions in the Middle East.
軍工股和航空航天股票，由iShares美國航天與國防etf（BATS:ITA）跟蹤，今年迄今已實現驚人的22%回報；一位航空專家分析了公司是否能夠跟得上由中東緊張局勢推動的天價估值。
The Aerospace Analyst: RBC analyst Ken Herbert reiterated Outperform ratings for the following aerospace companies in a note published Monday:
航空航天分析師：RBC分析師肯·赫伯特在週一發佈的一份報告中重申以下航空航天公司的表現優於預期的評級：
- Boeing Co (NYSE:BA), lowering its price target from $220 to $200.
- General Electric Co (NYSE:GE), raising its price target from $190 to $210.
- General Dynamics Corp (NYSE:GD), maintaining its price target at $320.
- Airbus SE (OTC:EADSY), lowering its price target from 180 euros to 160 euros.
- 波音公司（紐交所：BA），將其價格目標從220美元降至200美元。
- 通用電氣公司（紐交所：GE），將其價格目標從190美元上調至210美元。
- 通用動力公司（紐交所：GD），維持其價格目標在320美元。
- 空中客車集團(adr)（場外交易：EADSY），將其價格目標從180歐元降至160歐元。
Industry Takeaways: Herbert noted the industry's impressive performance in 2024.
行業板塊總結：赫伯特指出了2024年行業的出色表現。
"Investor sentiment into 3Q24 A&D results is positive on defense stocks, with concerns about near-term incremental upside after the recent strength for many defense stocks. Sentiment seems universally bullish on the aerospace aftermarket, although these stocks appear about as crowded on the long side as we have seen," the analyst said. "We believe the aero OE outlook is uncertain at best."
「投資者對第三季度24年航空航天的結果表示樂觀，關注國防股的近期增長潛力，儘管近期多家國防股表現強勁，但市場普遍看漲航空售後市場，儘管這些股票在多頭方面看起來已經異常擁擠，但我們認爲航空OE展望最多是不確定的。」分析師說。
The analyst noted his belief that aerospace valuations will hold in the near-to-mid term.
分析師指出，他認爲航天評估將在近中期保持穩定。
Boeing Takeaways: Herbert says that Boeing's current risk-to-reward is favorable.
波音總結：赫伯特表示，波音目前的風險收益比是有利的。
"We believe we are ~36 months into what should be a 4-to 5-year order cycle. Granted, the world is different today than it was for any prior cycle, but we expect demand for narrowbody aircraft to remain strong," Herbert said.
「我們認爲我們已經進入了一個應該是4至5年訂單週期的36個月。當然，今天的世界與以往的任何週期不同，但我們預計窄體飛機的需求將保持強勁，」赫伯特說。
The analyst believes that the ongoing labor strike at Boeing will be resolved before it releases its third-quarter earnings.
分析師認爲，波音正在進行的僱工罷工將在其發佈第三季度收益報告之前得到解決。
GE Aero Takeaways: Although Herbert raised General Electric's price target, he simultaneously lowered expectations of 2024, 2025 and 2026 LEAP engine deliveries.
通用電氣航空總結：儘管赫伯特提高了通用電氣的目標股價，但同時降低了對2024年、2025年和2026年的LEAP發動機交付預期。
"While we are more cautious on revenue growth, we are raising our estimates for adj operating income and adj. EPS as GE Aero benefits from mix," the analyst said. "We believe the healthy aftermarket demand fundamentals and continued favorable pricing on spare parts will offset downside risk to new LEAP deliveries, although investors will likely be focused on execution for this program."
「雖然我們對營收增長更加謹慎，但我們正在提高對通用電氣航空經修正營業收入和每股收益的預期，因爲通用電氣航空受益於產品組合，」分析師表示。「我們相信，健康的售後市場需求基本面和持續的備件有利價格將抵消新LEAP發動機交付的下行風險，儘管投資者可能會關注該項目的執行情況。」
Herbert believes that the bear case for GE is "fading" amid efforts to derisk its balance sheet.
赫伯特認爲，通用電氣的熊市情況在努力降低其資產負債表中正在「消退」中。
General Dynamics Takeaways: Herbert's lowering of General Dynamics' price target comes amid pessimism in Gulfstream delivery estimates. The analyst sees headwinds ahead in delivering its G700 aircraft.
通用動力總結：在海灣溪航空飛機交付預估悲觀的背景下，赫伯特下調了通用動力的目標股價。分析師認爲在交付G700飛機方面存在前進的阻力。
Herbert is still bullish on the company, with a perceived upside amid the continuing war in Ukraine.
Herbert仍然看好該公司，在烏克蘭戰爭持續的背景下，他認爲股價存在上漲空間。
Airbus Takeaways: The analyst's lowered price target is attributed to lower delivery estimates in the near term. He believes the stock can perform well, even though the company will likely walk back its mid-decade target of 1,000 deliveries.
空中客車關鍵觀點：分析師下調的目標價主要是由於近期交付預估降低。他認爲股票有望表現良好，儘管公司可能會放緩其中期目標，即1000架交付。
Herbert sees Airbus' core strengths as its strong backlog, cash position and margin expansion.
Herbert認爲空中客車的核心優勢在於其強大的訂單積壓、現金狀況和利潤率擴張。
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Photo: Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock.com
照片：Gorodenkoff / shutterstock.com
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
