水位偏高增强调节能力，雅砻江大渡河成长性出色。当前雅砻江水电站三大调节水库接近蓄满，高水头高蓄能保障枯水期发电量，同时明年调节能力提升将进一步增发电量、平滑丰枯期比例并提高电价，雅砻江中游水电陆续进入建设、水风光也将成为雅砻江主要业绩增长点，公司拟分批向雅砻江注资72 亿元。大渡河多个在建水电站即将投产，叠加弃水改善业绩弹性较大。公司自建银江水电站预计于2025 年投产，中选屏山抽水蓄能电站（1.2GW）。Core views:
Incoming water improved, electricity consumption increased, and performance grew steadily. The company released three quarterly reports. 2024Q1-3 achieved net profit of 4.422 billion yuan (YoY +15.10%), of which Q3 net profit was 2.12 billion yuan (YoY +21.55%), mainly due to the increase in electricity capacity in the Yalong River. The company achieved investment income of 4.505 billion yuan (+11.01% year over year) in the first three quarters. At the same time, the company's main hydropower business increased 6.48% year-on-year due to improved electricity consumption. On the downside, the company's financial expenses decreased by 26.74% year on year, profits from its own business increased, and the balance ratio fell to 32%.
As incoming water improved and electricity consumption increased, the profit growth rate of the Yalong River is expected to increase sequentially in Q3. The electricity consumption of the Yalong River was low in July of last year. The improvement in incoming water in the third quarter of this year led to an increase in electricity capacity in the Yalong River. We estimate that hydropower generation in the Yalong River increased 26% year-on-year in Q3, with +89%, +23%, and -8% year-on-year increases in July, August, and September, respectively. 2023Q3 Electricity prices in the Yalong River increased 14.7% year on year due to dry water, reaching 0.289 yuan/kilowatt-hour, while 2021 Q3 and 2022Q3 were 0.247 and 0.252 yuan/kilowatt-hour respectively. Last year, the electricity price base was high. While electricity levels returned to normal this year, electricity prices may be under pressure.
The high water level increases the ability to adjust, and the Dadu River in the Yalong River has excellent growth. Currently, the three major regulated reservoirs of the Yalong River Hydropower Station are close to full capacity. At the same time, the increase in regulation capacity next year will further increase power generation, smooth the dry period ratio, and raise electricity prices. Hydropower in the middle reaches of the Yalong River is entering construction one after another, and the water scenery will also become the main performance growth point of the Yalong River. The company plans to inject 7.2 billion yuan into the Yalong River in batches. A number of hydropower plants under construction in the Dadu River are about to be put into operation, and the performance improvement of superimposed wastewater is quite flexible. The company's self-built Yinjiang Hydropower Station is expected to be put into operation in 2025, and the Pingshan Pumped Storage Power Station (1.2GW) was selected.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 5.1/5.5/6.2 billion yuan, respectively, and the PE corresponding to the latest closing price will be 17.4/16.0/14.3 times, respectively. The hydropower performance of the Yalong River is growing steadily, and the Dadu River will enter the peak of commissioning. Referring to peer valuation, the company was given a PE valuation of 20 times in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value of 20.78 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Fluctuations in incoming water; risk of feed-in tariff adjustments; fluctuations in investment returns, etc.
