Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that due to reduced overall promotional activities and demand affected by macroeconomics, Macau's third-quarter gambling revenue and gambling industry EBITDA forecasts have been lowered by 5% and 8% respectively. The bank expects that SJM Holdings (00880.HK), Wynn Macau (01128.HK), and Sands China (01928.HK) will increase their market share in the third quarter, while MGM China (02282.HK), Galaxy Ent (00027.HK), and Melco Resorts (MLCO.US) will experience declines. The bank also mentioned that Macau's retail industry continues to face challenges in the third quarter, but foot traffic and retail sentiment have improved during the National Day gold cycle.

Morgan Stanley prefers Galaxy Ent among Macau casino stocks, mainly due to its strong property pipeline and ample hotel room inventory; at the same time, it believes that Sands China will be worth watching after experiencing a renovation peak, expecting the company's market share to recover in the second half of 2024.

Macquarie's investment rating and target prices for Macau casino stocks are as follows:

Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price (HKD)

Galaxy Ent (00027.HK) | Outperform | HK$56.8 → HK$50.6

SJM Holdings (00880.HK) | Neutral | HK$2.4 → HK$2.6

Sands China (01928.HK) | Outperform | HK$24.9 → HK$25.3

Melco Resorts (MLCO.US) | Outperform | $9.3 → $9

MGM China (02282.HK) | Outperform | HK$19 → HK$17.3

Wynn Macau (01128.HK) | Outperform | HK$9.6 → HK$9

(vc/u)

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