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马斯克豪赌Robotaxi

Musk bets big on Robotaxi

wallstreetcn ·  Oct 11 22:12

"Rebuilding" Tesla.

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Author | Chai Xuchen Editor | Zhou Zhiyu Faced with the trend of new energy electrification and the loss of market share under price wars, joint venture car companies have been "Renovating" their famous cars in an attempt to mount a strong counterattack. On May 30, SAIC Volkswagen's Touareg L Pro was launched. The car, which is said to be "the smartest gasoline car", had been preheated for nearly two months prior to its launch. The launch invited representatives from DJI Car and Tencent Travel, as well as the person in charge of iFLYTEK, all of whom attended in person to demonstrate the strength of its smart driving and smart cabin. As a "meritorious model" of SAIC Volkswagen, Touareg has been synonymous with Volkswagen SUVs for the past 15 years and was once the best-selling joint venture SUV. With a monthly sales volume of nearly 20,000 units for a long time, it occupies a 20% share of SAIC Volkswagen. SAIC Volkswagen hopes that the new Touareg will become a disruptor in the current market, from gasoline car intelligence to a stable price system with value-added buyback policy. In the view of Yu Jingmin, Vice President of Sales and Marketing of SAIC Volkswagen, new energy vehicles still have range anxiety and gasoline cars have an advantage that needs no explanation, but the biggest difference between them and electric vehicles lies mainly in their appearance and intelligence. After fulfilling the core needs of contemporary consumers, this once "famous car" seems to be reborn. Thus, from DJI's advanced intelligent driving solution to iFLYTEK's smart cabin voice assistant, this 200,000 yuan-level SUV brings together the strengths of various parties, aiming to break through the industry's perception that gasoline cars are less intelligent than electric vehicles. The launch of the new Touareg marks the beginning of SAIC Volkswagen's counterattack. In a post-event interview, Yu Jingmin mentioned several times that due to external cooperation and the accumulation of joint venture partners, SAIC Volkswagen's technology center is actually ahead of many independent brands, but unfortunately the rhythm is too slow. The company will now accelerate its efforts to catch up and even surpass in electric, hybrid or gasoline cars. Yu Jingmin revealed to Wall Street News that the new Touareg is the first gasoline car product in the Pro series, which is focused on intelligence, and that the Passat and Touareg Pro versions will also be introduced within the year. While polishing its technology, it is also preparing for the intelligence of its A-class cars. A counteroffensive war ignited by a gasoline fueled chariot seems to be brewing rapidly. But to be fair, SAIC Volkswagen's intelligence still lags far behind new forces such as Huawei, Xiaopeng, and Ideal. At the same time, in the current context where BBA is crazy about price cuts and the BMW electric car at over 180,000 yuan is setting a new industry low price, the 236,800 yuan Touareg L Pro seems somewhat out of step and the counterattack is difficult to achieve. In response to the challenge, SAIC Volkswagen has given a three-year 20% discount buyback plan. Users no longer need to worry about the fluctuation of vehicle purchase costs and second-hand car prices. SAIC Volkswagen locks in the difference between the purchase and final selling prices of users' vehicles, in a move to crack the price war. This also buys precious time for SAIC Volkswagen to speed up product and intelligence catch-up. This is the backdrop of the efforts to win back the former "king" of the Chinese car market.

In today's weather is good. Today's weather is good.

Since the launch of Model3, tesla has not had a press conference that has attracted so much attention for a long time.

On the morning of October 11th, after keeping the outside world waiting for two months, Tesla finally held the "We, Robot" conference at the Warner Bros. Studios in Los Angeles. Tesla CEO Musk said this will be a "historic" event.

Without a "PPT" presentation or the expected transitional models, Musk directly brought real vehicles - the driverless Cybercab, the driverless minibus Robovan, and the mass-produced humanoid robot TeslaBot to the event. He aims to show the market firsthand that Tesla remains a pioneer in AI, on par with Google and Microsoft, and can find practical applications and monetize them earlier than them.

However, despite the cheers at the scene, the surprises Musk brought were limited. Not only were the technical details of the Cybercab not provided, but large-scale production is still two to three years away, with no specific mention of the future commercial scale. In contrast, Google's Waymo next door has already surpassed the milestone of 100,000 miles driven per week.

Investors quickly voted, and Tesla's stock price rose more than 5% before the opening, but then fell by 8.9% at the opening. Because the Robotaxi, which Musk placed high hopes on, is the key for Tesla to scale up and also the new cornerstone supporting its high valuation.

Next, will this heavyweight model, which bears the mission of "changing fate" for Tesla, be able to avoid the difficulties faced by the "Cybertruck" and truly soar in stock price as Musk claims?

It seems even Musk himself may find it difficult to answer for now.

Market Buzz

With the gaze of over two million online viewers, Musk was picked up by a Cybercab and drove through the filming locations of "Harry Potter" and "Batman." This unmanned taxi successfully navigated through various obstacles and a bicycle team, earning cheers as it made its way towards the stage at the event.

As expected by the public, the Cybercab is a two-seater, gull-wing door sedan, with a streamlined silver body that strongly resembles a "sedan version of the Cybertruck." This ultra-modern electric car has no steering wheel or pedals, utilizes wireless charging for power supply, and is priced at less than 0.03 million USD (approximately 0.2 million RMB).

To Musk, the Cybercab is quite charming, and he first shared a fascinating story with the audience.

Musk stated that Tesla's FSD will soon evolve into fully autonomous driving without human supervision, allowing you to sleep in the car and reach your destination directly. In addition to self-driving capabilities, it can also be used for ridesharing and food delivery to help you earn money effortlessly. Even interior cleaning can be done by accompanying robots, truly achieving full unmanned operation.

His ambition is to completely overturn the current travel market.

Musk said that a online car-hailing driver could manage dozens of Cybercabs at the same time, 'operating these fleets like a shepherd.' Looking back, the series of operating costs such as buying a car, insurance, parking fees, etc., will be compressed by 5 times, equivalent to dropping from 4.4 RMB per kilometer to 0.9 RMB.

Previously, Musk promised that owners could earn 0.03 million USD per year with Robotaxi. The implication is that Cybercab could recover its cost in the fastest time of one year, which has greatly increased everyone's motivation to either use for personal use or 'wholesale' Cybercab, unveiling the strategic intent.

However, Cybercab only has two seats, making it difficult to cover high-density areas. Musk simply created a 'self-driving minibus' Cybervan that can carry 20 people. This multifunctional vehicle, resembling a rocket, can accommodate 20 people, transporting both passengers and cargo. His goal is to reduce transportation costs to 5-10 cents per mile (approximately 0.2-0.4 RMB per kilometer).

After the debut of self-driving taxis and minibuses, Musk's 'grand plan' has now taken shape in its preliminary form.

Musk mentioned that in the future, whether it's Cybercab, Cybervan, or the current S3XY series on the road, they can all join the shared fleet, forming a vast operational network similar to a combination of Airbnb and Uber.

According to the plan, by next year, Model3 and ModelY will be upgraded to fully autonomous driving FSD, expanding extensively in Texas and California. However, Cybercab is still waiting for mass production and road use, which is expected to be around 2026-2027.

In addition to self-driving cars, Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus (TeslaBot) made a collective appearance, becoming a major highlight of this press conference. These humanoid AI robots originating from Tesla were present at the press conference as lively DJs and bar waiters interacting with the audience.

Elon Musk stated that TeslaBot can act as a teacher, take care of children, walk dogs, trim grass, and shop, with a final price of about 0.02-0.03 million US dollars, possibly cheaper than a car. At Tesla's shareholder meeting two months ago, Musk boldly claimed that humanoid robots will become the main force in the industry, with a potential quantity exceeding 10 billion-20 billion units. The futuristic science fiction seems to be on the verge of turning into reality.

From Cybercab, Cybervan to TeslaBot, Musk provided a glimpse of the world 20 years from now in a press conference, also opening a new chapter for Tesla as an AI company.

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However, shortly after the end of the press conference, investors quickly changed their tune. Tesla's after-hours stock price plummeted, while Cybercab, set to disrupt competitors Uber and Lyft, soared by 6% and 4.6%, respectively.

Obviously, Musk failed to satisfy the market's appetite.

This less-than-half-hour 'AI show' will determine the success or failure of Tesla's comeback. This battle is crucial for Tesla, which is currently in a precarious position.

As a beacon of industry innovation, Tesla has rewritten the script of the century-old auto industry and been favored by investors. However, it now appears somewhat lost and this year has been pushed out of the list of 'Seven Giants' in the US stock market value ranking.

Currently, Tesla's auto sales still account for 82% of its total revenue, essentially remaining an automobile company. What's worse is the siege from domestic new forces, causing its imagination to shrink further. Not only is its market share in China gradually shrinking, but under repeated price wars, its gross margin continues to decline.

Against this background, Musk began to tell investors a new story about AI, trying to convince them that Tesla is still an AI company on par with giants like Google and Microsoft, rather than just an ordinary car manufacturer.

However, in recent years, the pace of the Tesla Robotaxi's commercialization has repeatedly been delayed, coupled with aggressive competitors, threatening Tesla's leading position in smart driving. The halo of the 'Tech Messiah' is gradually fading.

Recently, Waymo announced plans to expand its operations in the USA, with its paid ride service offering exceeding one hundred thousand rides per week. Backed by Google, Waymo's performance is rapidly gaining momentum; in the domestic market, Baidu's Apollo has completed nearly nine hundred thousand rides in the second quarter and is moving towards achieving regional financial balance.

The onslaught from peers has made the high valuation and glamorous image above Tesla's head a sword of Damocles that could fall at any moment.

It should be noted that since the announcement of the Robotaxi on April 5, Tesla's stock price has surged by 45%. During this time, Musk raised his flag, stating that 'Robotaxi and robot business could make Tesla a $30 trillion market cap company'. That's equivalent to 10 times the market cap of Apple, or even higher than the USA's GDP last year.

The market clearly has high expectations for this. Currently, Tesla's PE ratio is still as high as 67 times, surpassing the seven giants of the US stock market. In comparison, the PE ratio of auto manufacturers in China and the US is only in single digits.

The extremely high valuation is because investors believe Tesla has more advantages. But Musk also needs to show his real abilities to prove continuous innovation and profitability. Otherwise, an unsupported high valuation is nothing but a house of cards, and a fall is inevitable.

Betting on AI and smart driving will be Musk's crucial move to 'recreate' Tesla. Industry insiders say this may be his last chance to convince investors that Tesla still has innovation and disruptive power.

It can be said that this "Robotaxi Day" is not only a competition of technology, but also an important declaration of Tesla's market positioning, innovation capability, and future development strategy, as well as a challenge to its market identity.

Although there are loyal fans believing strongly in Tesla's growth, claiming that Tesla will grow into a $28.1 trillion autonomous driving service provider, the market sentiment indicates otherwise.

CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson expressed disappointment in Tesla's recent lack of clarity in its product roadmap; Jefferies Financial analysts also noted that Musk did not provide "verifiable evidence" of Tesla's progress in autonomous driving technology.

As the offsite bull and bear battle kicks off, there is also frequent internal turbulence. Prior to this 'historic' unveiling event, Tesla's Chief Information Officer Nagesh Saldi announced his resignation, and several executives, including the senior vice president and government affairs director, have also resigned successively, adding many uncertainties to Tesla.

However, the "Iron Man" who has weathered many storms is now determined. He is risking it all to make Tesla a world-changing company. As long as he can successfully implement these grand plans with robots, Musk still has a chance to work another miracle.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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