share_log

赛轮轮胎(601058)点评:Q3销量创新高 原料及费用略影响盈利能力

Sailun Tire (601058) review: Q3 sales reached a record high, raw materials and costs slightly affected profitability

Swhy Research ·  Oct 11, 2024 11:26

Key points of investment:

Company announcement: According to the announcement, net profit due to mother for the first three quarters of 2024 is expected to be 3.21-3.28 billion yuan, up 58.5%-62% year on year, achieving net profit of 3.11-3.18 billion yuan, up 48.2%-51.5% year on year; of these, 24Q3 net profit to mother 1.059-1.129 billion yuan (median value of about 1.094 billion yuan, YoY +11.7%, QoQ -2.1%), minus non-net profit of 1.058- 1.128 billion yuan (median value of 1.093 billion yuan, YoY +13.3%, QoQ +5.4%). The profit for the third quarter was mainly affected by raw materials and sales activities and personnel expenses.

Tire sales reached a record high in the third quarter, and raw materials and cost estimates slightly affected profitability. According to the announcement, in the first three quarters of 2024, the production and sales volume of the company's all-steel, semi-steel and off-road tire products all reached the highest level in the same period in history. The total sales volume of tire products increased by more than 30% year-on-year, and is estimated to exceed 53.11 million bars. In the third quarter, tire sales exceeded 18.57 million bars (YoY +18%, QoQ +3.4%). The main increase in the company's production capacity utilization rate of Cambodian phase II and half steel tires increased, and on the other hand, it came from domestic market companies that relied better on the other Due to sales capacity and product strength, the sales volume of semi-steel all-steel is still growing. On the cost side, according to Baichuan data, the average prices of natural rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, carbon black, and curtain cloth changed by +5%, +10%, +8%, -4%, and -6% respectively in the third quarter. The increase in raw material costs slightly affected profitability in the third quarter. On the cost side, in the third quarter, the company continued to promote a series of events such as the Olympics, and to recruit sales personnel, generating a large amount of investment. In terms of exchange, since the company used forward foreign exchange settlement, the impact on exchange in the third quarter was small. Overall, profit to mother declined slightly from month to month.

The Mexican and Indonesian bases were carried out as scheduled, and the multiple base layouts raised the company's safety margin. Mexico and Indonesia began construction in May and September of this year, respectively. We expect to gradually start production in May and June next year, respectively, to improve the company's overall ability to withstand trade barriers while contributing to the next two years of growth. The promotion of liquid gold is going well, and it is expected that it will work simultaneously in the supporting and terminal retail markets to enhance the high-end of products and brands. The company launched a marketing terminal in February 2023 to sell liquid gold semi-steel tires, and this year there were many promotions in CCTV advertisements, Asian Games advertisements, European Cup, World Cup, Olympics and other related fields, and domestic consumer awareness of brands and products has gradually increased. The price of the company's domestic sales terminals is strictly controlled, and the product quality is excellent and the profit is high, so dealers and stores are highly willing to sell. In 2024, the company will continue to adjust the product structure to increase the proportion of high value-added products. Furthermore, since the launch of liquid gold tires, the company's supporting market has also gained momentum rapidly. Through assessment goals based on profit and brand as the main supporting targets, it has also gradually entered some best-selling models, accumulating insufficient growth.

Profit forecast and valuation: Maintain profit forecasts. Net profit is estimated to be around 4.57, 5.43, and 6.38 billion yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding to PE about 11, 9, and 8 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: large fluctuations in raw materials affect profitability; production capacity investment falls short of expectations

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
Comment Comment · Views 448

Recommended

Write a comment

Statement

This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.