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YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC(9987.HK):STILL WITH ROOM FOR RERATING

YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC(9987.HK):STILL WITH ROOM FOR RERATING

裕中國控股有限公司(9987.HK):仍有提升空間
10/10

YUMC-H's share price soared 31% over the past month amidst rapidly improving investor sentiment in China. Restaurant sector would be the prime beneficiary of the government's stimulus bonanza, given the pro- cyclical nature of on-premise consumption. Accordingly, we see further valuation upside for chain restaurant companies. In such a competitive environment, YUMC has a growth trajectory that is principally driven by evolving business model with excellent execution. We also like YUMC's shareholder return initiatives, which provide investors with a margin of safety. Set BUY rating.

YUMC-H的股價在過去一個月中暴漲31%,中國投資者情緒迅速好轉。餐飲板塊將成爲政府刺激紅利的主要受益者,考慮到場內消費的產業週期性特點。因此,我們認爲連鎖餐廳公司的估值還有進一步的上漲空間。在這樣競爭激烈的環境中,YUMC的增長軌跡主要受到不斷髮展的優秀執行業務模式的推動。我們也喜歡YUMC的股東回報計劃,爲投資者提供安全保障。設定買入評級。

Key Factors for Rating

評級的關鍵因素

3Q24 preview. Based on our estimation, system sales (ex FX) should see HSD% YoY growth and OPM should rise c.0.5ppt YoY in 3Q24. Guidance and growth strategies. 2024 expansion targets remain intact - 1,500-1,700 new stores (with agile business model and healthy payback) and US$700-850m Capex (with more investments in business intelligence, supply chain & other infrastructure). Three strategic pillars are reducing business complexity, simplifying menu, and uplifting operational efficiency. According to management, operating profit could grow at a HSD%-to-LDD% CAGR from 2023 to 2026.

3Q24預覽。根據我們的估算,系統銷售(外匯期貨除外)應該呈HSD%的同比增長,營業利潤率應該在3Q24同比上升約0.5個百分點。指導和增長策略。2024年的擴張目標保持完整-1500-1700家新店(具有靈活的業務模式和良好的回報)和7-8.5億美元的資本支出(在商業智能、供應鏈和其他基礎設施方面增加更多投資)。三大戰略支柱是降低業務複雜性、簡化菜單,提升運營效率。據管理層稱,營業利潤從2023年到2026年有望以HSD%至LDD%的複合年增長率增長。

2Q24: profitability improvement on revenue resilience and operational optimisation. YUMC reported 0.9% YoY top-line growth in 2Q24 to US$2,679m. System sales (ex FX) grew 4% YoY, on the back of accelerated openings, despite 4% YoY SSS decrease, as a whole. Company restaurant margin narrowed 0.6ppt YoY to 15.5% in 2Q24; cost ratio of food and paper, payroll, and occupancy was 31.5% (+0.8ppt YoY), 26.3% (-0.1ppt YoY), and 26.7% (-0.1ppt YoY). As G&A expenses ratio fell 0.8ppt YoY, OPM slightly expanded 0.2ppt YoY to 9.9%. Net profit grew 7.6% YoY to US$212m.

2Q24:憑藉收入彈性和運營優化而實現盈利能力改善。YUMC報告了2Q24年同比0.9%的營收增長,達到了2.679億元美元。系統銷售(外匯期貨除外)同比增長4%,這是由於加快開店速度,儘管同店銷售額同比下降了4%。公司餐廳毛利率在2Q24年同比下降了0.6個百分點,降至15.5%;食品和紙巾成本比例、工資和租金成本比例分別爲31.5%(同比增加0.8個百分點)、26.3%(同比減少0.1個百分點)和26.7%(同比減少0.1個百分點)。由於管理費用比例同比下降了0.8個百分點,營業利潤略微同比擴大了0.2個百分點,達到了9.9%。淨利潤同比增長了7.6%,達到了2.12億元美元。

KFC. In 2Q24, KFC reported 5% YoY system sales growth - SSS decreased 3% YoY (ex FX; stemming from 4% YoY same-store transactions increase, offset by 7% YoY average ticket decrease), while store count rose 13% YoY to 9,740 as of 30 June 2024, with 328 net additions (1Q24: 307). Management expects KFC's ticket to be stable in the coming quarters, emphasising that the average ticket of RMB37 was resilient (2Q19: RMB35); however, we assume marginally lower ticket in 2H24-2025, given 1) overall soft consumption sentiment, 2) strategy towards value-for-money proposition, and 3) solicitation of smaller orders, esp. on third- party aggregator's platforms with lower delivery fee. KFC member count was up to 460m, representing 65% of its system sales in 2Q24. Digital order contribution was unchanged at 89%. Company restaurant margin was down 1.2ppts YoY to 16.1% on pricing softness, despite cost tailwinds; operating profit declined 3.3% YoY to US$264m in 2Q24.

肯德基。在2Q24年,肯德基報告了同比增長5%的系統銷售額-同店銷售額同比下降了3%(外匯除外;主要源於同比交易量增加4%,被同比平均銷售額降低7%所抵消),截至2024年6月30日,門店數量同比增長了13%,達到9740家,淨增加了328家(1Q24年:307家)。管理層預計肯德基的銷售額在未來幾個季度將保持穩定,強調人民幣37元的平均銷售額具有彈性(2Q19:人民幣35元);然而,考慮到總體的低消費情緒、價值爲王的策略以及對更小訂單的吸引力,特別是對第三方聚合平台的訂單,附帶更低的配送費用,我們假設2H24-2025年的票價略有下降。肯德基會員數增至4.6億,佔2Q24年銷售總額的65%。數字化訂單貢獻率維持不變,爲89%。公司餐廳毛利率由於價格軟化同比下降了1.2個百分點,儘管成本形勢有利;2Q24年營業利潤由於運營剛度下降了3.3%,降至2.64億元美元。

Pizza Hut. In 2Q24, PH reported 1% YoY system sales growth - SSS decreased 8% YoY (ex FX; stemming from 2% YoY same-store transactions increase, offset by 9% YoY average ticket drop), while store count rose 14% YoY to 3,341 as of 30 June 2024, with 79 net additions (1Q24: 113). Going forward, PH could further capture market share at the cost of reducing average ticket. PH member count rose to 170m, representing 65% of its system sales, and digital order contribution was 93% in 2Q24. Company restaurant margin expanded 0.9ppt YoY to 13.2%; operating profit increased from US$35m in 2Q23 to US$40m in 2Q24.

必勝客。2024年第二季度,PH報告同店銷售額同比增長1%-不含外匯-同店銷售額同比下降8%(源自同店交易增長2% 同比,被同店平均消費下降9% 同比所抵消),截至2024年6月30日,門店數量同比增長14% 至3,341家,淨增加79家(2024年第一季度:113家)。未來,PH可以進一步佔領市場份額,以降低平均消費的代價。PH會員數增至1.7億,佔其系統銷售額的65%,數字訂單貢獻率在2024年第二季度達到93%。公司餐廳利潤率同比擴大0.9個百分點,達到13.2%;營業利潤從2023年第二季度的3.5億美元增至2024年第二季度的4億美元。

n New business initiatives. Each of the two initiatives is in a unique position to underpin the market acceptance, in our view. 1) K Coffee. K Coffee have become available in all KFC stores, and it achieved sales value of >RMB1bn (+26% YoY) and cup volume of 120m (+36% YoY) in 1H24. K Coffee store count jumped from 100 in March to c.300 in July, and is estimated to reach >500 by year-end. We like K Coffee's distinct menu with either "coffee & hot dog combo" at RMB9.9 or other value-for-money innovative SKUs (e.g. iced orange creamy sparkling latte, coffee floats, thick caramel egg tart, etc.), which is the key for a profitable model. Another factor is that under the side-by-side concept, K Coffee can share kitchen with existing KFC stores, effectively driving customer traffic and minimising cost for investments and operations. 2) Pizza Hut WOW. Management views the WOW model as a major breakthrough, and PH WOW store count was >100 in July from the first store in May 2024 and could reach >200 by year-end. The WOW model features simpler operations, good variety, and excellent value-for-money. To be more specific, PH WOW stores provide its target customer base (primarily those solo diners, young and value-conscious users) with fast casual format and lighter service. Initial results seem promising and we expect the WOW model to generate incremental sales and operating profit.

新的業務舉措。我們認爲,這兩個舉措都處於獨特的位置,能夠支撐市場的接受度。1) k咖啡。k咖啡已經在所有肯德基門店推出,在2024年上半年實現銷售額超過10億元(同比增長26%),杯量達到1.2億(同比增長36%)。k咖啡門店數量從3月的100家增加到7月的約300家,預計年底將達到500多家。我們喜歡k咖啡獨特的菜單,其中包括售價爲9.9元的「咖啡熱狗組合」或其他物有所值的創新產品(例如冰橙奶泡咖啡、咖啡浮標、厚焦糖蛋撻等),這是盈利模式的關鍵。另一個因素是,在並肩概念下,K咖啡可以與現有的肯德基門店共用廚房,有效地增加客流量並減少投資和運營成本。2) 必勝客WOW。管理層將WOW模式視爲重大突破,截至2024年5月第一家門店以來,PH WOW門店數量在7月超過100家,預計年底將超過200家。WOW模式具有更簡單的運營、豐富的品種和卓越的性價比。更具體地說,PH WOW門店爲目標客戶群(主要是單獨用餐者、年輕人和注重性價比的用戶)提供快速便餐形式和更輕鬆的服務。初步結果看起來很有希望,我們期待WOW模式產生額外的銷售和營業利潤。

n Continue to leverage strengths in efficiency & cost control. Management reiterated that cost saving is essential and recurring, on ongoing optimisation of store operation (e.g. menu revisions, process digitalisation and automation, etc.) and procurement management. Accordingly, we forecast that YUMC's company (system) restaurant profit margin will stabilise at c.16% and G&A expenses ratio will improve to c.5.0% (2023: 5.8%) in 2024-26.

繼續發揮效率和成本控制方面的優勢。管理層重申節約成本的重要性和可持續性,持續優化店鋪運營(例如菜單修訂、流程數字化和自動化等)和採購管理。因此,我們預計YUMC公司(系統)餐廳利潤率將在約16%左右穩定,並且總務和行政費用比率將在2024-26年間改善至約5.0%(2023年爲5.8%)。

n Corporate governance and shareholder returns. YUMC announced the CFO change on 6 August 2024. Since October, Mr. Adrian Ding has served as the new acting CFO. Mr. Andy Yeung, the former CFO, will serve as Senior Advisor to the CEO until 28 February 2025. Biography of Mr. Adrian Ding: Mr. Ding joined YUMC in March 2019 as VP of Corporate Finance, and has served as YUMC's CIO since February 2020 and GM of the Lavazza JV since March 2022. Prior to joining YUMC, Mr. Ding worked for Alibaba Group with a focus on strategic investments in TMT sectors, and before that, worked as an investment banker. Mr. Ding also serves as director of Fujian Sunner Development Co., Ltd. Returning excess cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during 2024-26 in a sustainable manner. The Company's cash position is healthy. Currently, the implied 24E total shareholder return equals to nearly 9%.

公司治理和股東回報。YUMC於2024年8月6日宣佈首席財務官變動。自10月起,丁銘英先生擔任新任代理首席財務官。前首席財務官楊安迪先生將擔任首席執行官的高級顧問,直至2025年2月28日。丁銘英先生的個人簡歷:丁先生於2019年3月加入YUMC擔任公司財務副總裁,自2020年2月起擔任YUMC的首席信息官,自2022年3月起擔任Lavazza合資企業的總經理。在加入YUMC之前,丁先生曾在阿里巴巴集團從事以大TMT板塊爲重點的戰略投資工作,此前曾擔任投資銀行家。丁先生還擔任福建聖農發展股份有限公司的董事。以持續可持續的方式在2024-26年通過分紅和股票回購向股東返還多餘現金。公司的現金狀況良好。目前,24E暗示的總股東回報率接近9%。

Key Risks for Rating

評級的主要風險

Risks: 1) SSSG softness; 2) intensified competition; 3) commodity cost inflation; 4) slower-than-expected pace of store expansion; 5) unsuccessful execution of new initiatives; and 6) forex rate fluctuations.

風險:1) 銷售同店比增長率疲軟;2) 競爭加劇;3) 商品成本通脹;4) 店鋪擴張速度低於預期;5) 新舉措執行不成功;以及6) 外匯匯率波動。

Valuation

估值

We forecast YUMC's total revenue and EBITDA to register a 3-year CAGR of 6.1% and 8.8% from 2023 to 2026, respectively. Our shareholders' profit forecasts for 2024-25E are US$880m and US$965m, respectively. EPS could reach US$2.34, US$2.68 and US$3.04, up 17.6%, 14.8% and 13.2% YoY, respectively, in 2024- 26, considering the impact of repurchases on the number of shares outstanding. Based on 20.0x 2025E P/E, we set TP for YUMC-H and YUMC-US at HK$418.00 and US$53.60, respectively, both with BUY rating. We list YUMC as our top pick for the Consumer Services (Restaurant & Catering) sector.

我們預計YUMC的總營業收入和息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)將分別在2023年至2026年實現6.1%和8.8%的年複合增長率。我們預計2024-25年的股東利潤分別爲8,800萬美元和9,650萬美元。每股收益可能達到2.34美元、2.68美元和3.04美元,在2024-26年間分別同比增長17.6%、14.8%和13.2%,考慮到回購對流通股數的影響。基於2025年預計市盈率20.0倍,我們將YUMC-H和YUMC-US的目標價設定爲418.00港元和53.60美元,都給予買入評級。我們將YUMC列爲我們對消費服務(餐飲行業)板塊的首選。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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