Elevated CPO Pricing May Not Be Sustainable
Elevated CPO Pricing May Not Be Sustainable
CPO prices have surprised many in the market, remaining strong due to tight supply conditions, especially in Indonesia. However, with expectations of increased production in Indonesia, there is concern that the current pricing trends may not be sustainable. Notably, CPO is trading at a premium over other oils such as soyoils and sunflower oils, which may lead to reduced competitiveness in the market. RHB Investment Bank Bhd has The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported a significant increase in crude palm oil (CPO) stockpiles, hitting an eight-month high of 2.01 million tonnes (mt) by the end of September 2024. This rise is attributed to a sharp decline in domestic consumption, which saw a staggering 37% month-on-month drop to just 0.15mt. The report suggests that Malaysia's CPO production may have peaked in August, prompting analysts to closely monitor Indonesia's output, expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. A strong recovery in Indonesia's CPO production could lead to downward pressure on CPO prices, which currently trade at an unsustainable premium compared to other vegetable oils.
馬來西亞棕櫚油委員會（MPOB）報告稱，粗棕櫚油（CPO）庫存大幅增加，到2024年9月底達到20.1萬噸（mt）的八個月高點。這一增長歸因於國內消費的急劇下降，同比下降了37％，至僅0.15萬噸。該報告顯示，馬來西亞的CPO產量可能已在8月份達到頂峯，這促使分析師密切關注印度尼西亞的產量，預計將在2024年第四季度達到峯值。印度尼西亞CPO產量的強勁復甦可能會給CPO價格帶來下行壓力，與其他植物油相比，CPO價格目前的溢價是不可持續的。
Maybank Investment Bank Bhd has maintained a NEUTRAL stance on the sector, with BUY recommendations for SD Guthrie (SDG), Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP), Ta Ann (TAH), and Bumitama Agri (BAL).
馬來亞銀行投資銀行有限公司對該行業保持中立立場，建議買入SD Guthrie（SDG）、砂拉越油棕櫚樹（SOP）、塔安（TAH）和Bumitama Agri（BAL）。
The MPOB's figures surpassed market expectations, with September's stockpile exceeding the anticipated 1.95mt. The increase was driven by a combination of high output, recorded at 1.82mt, and a decrease in domestic consumption, alongside a modest rise in exports, which reached 1.54mt. Imports fell sharply to a mere 0.005mt as high domestic CPO prices in Indonesia deterred Malaysian refiners. Preliminary export estimates for October indicate a promising start, with independent cargo surveyors reporting shipments of approximately 490,582 tonnes, representing a 19% month-on-month increase.
MPOB的數據超出了市場預期，9月份的庫存量超過了預期的195萬噸。這一增長是由創紀錄的1.82萬噸的高產量和國內消費的下降以及出口的溫和增長（達到154萬噸）共同推動的。由於印度尼西亞國內CPO價格居高不下，馬來西亞煉油商望而卻步，進口量急劇下降至僅0.005噸。10月份的初步出口估計表明開局良好，獨立貨物調查員報告的出貨量約爲490,582噸，同比增長19％。
CPO prices have surprised many in the market, remaining strong due to tight supply conditions, especially in Indonesia. However, with expectations of increased production in Indonesia, there is concern that the current pricing trends may not be sustainable. Notably, CPO is trading at a premium over other oils such as soyoils and sunflower oils, which may lead to reduced competitiveness in the market. RHB Investment Bank Bhd has reiterated a NEUTRAL outlook for the sector, while identifying Johor Plantations Group (JPG), Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP), SD Guthrie (SDG), and London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP) as new top picks.
CPO價格令市場上的許多人感到驚訝，由於供應緊張，尤其是在印度尼西亞，CPO價格仍然強勁。但是，由於預計印度尼西亞的產量將增加，人們擔心當前的價格趨勢可能無法持續。值得注意的是，CPO的交易價格高於搜油和葵花籽油等其他油，這可能會導致市場競爭力降低。印度興業投資銀行有限公司重申了該行業的中立前景，同時將柔佛種植園集團（JPG）、砂拉越油棕櫚樹（SOP）、SD Guthrie（SDG）和倫敦蘇門答臘印度尼西亞（LSIP）確定爲新的首選。
Weather disruptions have also played a role in shaping the market landscape, with wet weather reported across key producing regions, impacting harvesting and transportation. The forecast of continued La Niña conditions raises concerns about further disruptions, which could influence both supply levels and pricing dynamics. As a result, MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd has also maintained a NEUTRAL stance, projecting average CPO prices of RM4,000 per tonne, while highlighting the importance of weather patterns in shaping future price movements. The report emphasises the potential for continued elevated CPO prices, albeit coupled with a warning of demand rationing as CPO becomes less attractive compared to other oils.
天氣中斷也在塑造市場格局方面發揮了作用，據報道，主要產區出現潮溼天氣，影響了收穫和運輸。對拉尼娜狀況持續的預測引發了人們對進一步中斷的擔憂，這可能會影響供應水平和定價動態。因此，MIDF Amanah投資銀行有限公司也保持了中立立場，預計CPO的平均價格爲每噸4,000令吉，同時強調了天氣模式在塑造未來價格走勢方面的重要性。該報告強調了CPO價格持續上漲的可能性，儘管同時警告說，與其他石油相比，CPO的吸引力降低了，需求將實行配給。
The stocks mentioned in the reports are:
報告中提到的股票是：
Buy Recommendations
購買推薦
| Company Name | Ticker | Current Price (RM) | Target Price (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD Guthrie | SDG | 4.64 | 5.20 |
| Swk Oil Palms | SOP | 3.19 | 4.10 |
| Ta Ann | TAH | 4.03 | 4.03 |
| Bumitama Agri | BAL | 0.745 | 0.78 |
| IOI Corp | – | 3.74 | 4.50 |
| Johor Plantations Group | – | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Kuala Lumpur Kepong | – | 25.40 | 25.40 |
| PP London Sumatra Indonesia | – | 1,130 IDR | 1,130 IDR |
| Sarawak Oil Palms | – | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| SD Guthrie | – | 5.35 | 5.35 |
| 公司名 | Ticker | 當前價格 (RM) | 目標價格 (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD Guthrie | SDG | 4.64 | 5.20 |
| Swk 油棕櫚樹 | 停下來 | 3.19 | 4.10 |
| 塔安 | TAH | 4.03 | 4.03 |
| Bumitama Agri | BAL | 0.745 | 0.78 |
| IOI 公司 | — | 3.74 | 4.50 |
| 柔佛種植園集團 | — | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| 吉隆坡甲洞 | — | 25.40 | 25.40 |
| PP 倫敦蘇門答臘印度尼西亞 | — | 1,130 印尼盾 | 1,130 印尼盾 |
| 砂拉越油棕櫚樹 | — | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| SD Guthrie | — | 5.35 | 5.35 |
Neutral Recommendations
中立建議
| Company Name | Ticker | Current Price (RM) | Target Price (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astra Agro Lestari | – | 5,460 IDR | 5,460 IDR |
| Bumitama Agri | BAL | 0.70 SGD | 0.70 SGD |
| FGV Holdings | – | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| First Resources | – | 1.45 SGD | 1.45 SGD |
| Golden Agri | – | 0.25 SGD | 0.25 SGD |
| Ta Ann | TAH | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| TSH Resources | – | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Wilmar International | – | 3.10 SGD | 3.10 SGD |
| 公司名 | Ticker | 當前價格 (RM) | 目標價格 (RM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astra Agro Lestari | — | 5,460 印尼盾 | 5,460 印尼盾 |
| Bumitama Agri | BAL | 0.70 新加坡元 | 0.70 新加坡元 |
| FGV 控股公司 | — | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| 第一資源 | — | 1.45 新加坡元 | 1.45 新加坡元 |
| 黃金農業 | — | 0.25 新加坡元 | 0.25 新加坡元 |
| 塔安 | TAH | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| TSH 資源 | — | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| 豐益國際 | — | 3.10 新加坡元 | 3.10 新加坡元 |
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
