该行表示，经历过去几年的行业巨大变迁以及公司自身的相应调整，展望未来，在内生增长、增量部件产能释放以及全球属地化趋势三重驱动下，有望迎来新一轮向上周期。而短期来看，公司经营状况持续向好将推动公司估值回归合理水平。预计2024-2026年EPS分别为1.99/2.52/3.42元/股，给予公司2024年12倍PE，对应合理价值为26.43港元/股，维持“买入”评级。GF Sec research pointed out that Minth Group (00425) exterior parts business has been somewhat pressured by downstream customers, while the battery box business has seen performance growth driven by an increase in market share of new energy by downstream customers; the short-term gross margin benefits from overseas production capacity climbing, and the long-term benefits from reduced depreciation and amortization growth rate; the cost rate is under pressure in the short term due to the rise in marine transportation costs, with further room for compression in the long term.
The bank pointed out that with the trend of automobile intelligence and electrification, the value of exterior parts per vehicle has increased, driving the continuous expansion of the exterior parts market, and the exterior parts business is expected to achieve stable growth with mature technology, patent thresholds, vertical industry chain, and other advantages.
The bank further mentioned that on the demand side, the trend of electrification in Europe remains unchanged, and localized factory construction is the general trend; on the supply side, the company's global strategic layout of production capacity, with the battery box business as a representative, is expected to quickly expand production volume with relative advantages in production lines, low costs, comprehensive technology, sufficient capacity, and a rich customer base.
The bank stated that after experiencing significant industry changes in recent years and corresponding adjustments within the company, looking ahead, with the three driving forces of internal growth, incremental component capacity release, and the global trend of localization, a new upward cycle is expected. In the short term, the company's continued good operational performance will push the company's valuation back to a reasonable level. It is estimated that the EPS for 2024-2026 will be 1.99/2.52/3.42 yuan per share, giving the company a 12x PE for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value of 26.43 Hong Kong dollars per share, maintaining a 'buy' rating.
