Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares are trading lower Monday as several analysts weigh in on the entertainment giant ahead of earnings next week. Much of the weakness appears to be due to a downgrade from Barclays.
What Happened: Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar downgraded Netflix from Equal-Weight to Underweight on Monday and maintained a price target of $550, citing valuation concerns.
Venkateshwar's downgrade is built on the idea that Netflix has had to lean into new growth drivers more heavily in recent years in order to keep revenue growth in the double digits. The Barclays analyst believes this growth push, which includes things like paid sharing, has likely pulled forward future growth.
"Even with these levers, growth is slowing and every lever now has corresponding trade-offs," Venkateshwar said in a new note to clients.
The Barclays analyst believes Netflix will have to lean on pricing to maintain growth in regions where it has seen the most revenue growth in recent years.
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The analyst noted that Netflix's marketing costs are the same as they were in 2019, which has helped the company drive operating leverage in recent years. However, Venkateshwar also believes Netflix has benefitted from a pull forward in margin expansion, which has created "unrealistic" expectations for long-term margin growth and free cash flow generation.
"Netflix is trading at its highest valuation gap since '22 when EPS/EBITDA metrics became more relevant ... The company's valuation is also high vs expected future growth," the Barclays analyst said.
On a more positive note, Goldman Sachs maintained a Neutral on Netflix and raised the price target from $659 to $705. Although continued stock outperformance has raised valuation concerns, Goldman remains positive on Netflix ahead of earnings next week.
The analyst highlighted recent third-party data showing that Netflix maintains a strong market leader position, giving the company pricing power and lower competitive intensity.
Piper Sandler also released a positive update on Monday. The analyst firm upgraded Netflix from Neutral to Overweight and raised the price target from $650 to $800 to reflect the company's clear leadership in the streaming space.
"Notably, our prior Neutral stance was centered around valuation, but now, we appreciate the company is expensive for a reason," Piper Sandler said.
The analyst firm believes positive earnings revisions could be on the horizon, highlighting Netflix's ad-tier business and multiple levers the company can pull in its ads-free business. Piper Sandler also noted that consensus estimates for margins could prove to be conservative.
NFLX Price Action: Netflix shares were down 2.16% at $704.16 at the time of writing, according to Benzinga Pro.
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Photo: Pixabay.
Netflix公司(納斯達克股票代碼:NFLX)股價週一走低,原因是幾位分析師在下週業績公佈前對這家娛樂巨頭進行了權衡。大部分疲軟似乎是由於巴克萊下調評級。
發生了什麼:巴克萊分析師坎南·文卡特什瓦爾週一以估值擔憂爲由將Netflix的評級從同等權重下調至減持,並將目標股價維持在550美元。
Venkateshwar的降級基於這樣的觀點,即近年來,爲了將收入增長保持在兩位數,Netflix必須更加註重新的增長動力。巴克萊分析師認爲,這種增長推動力,包括付費共享等方面,可能推動了未來的增長。
文卡特什瓦爾在給客戶的一份新報告中說:「即使有了這些槓桿,增長仍在放緩,現在每個槓桿都有相應的權衡取捨。」
巴克萊分析師認爲,Netflix必須依靠定價來維持其近年來收入增長最快地區的增長。
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這位分析師指出,Netflix的營銷成本與2019年相同,這幫助該公司提高了近年來的運營槓桿率。但是,文卡特什瓦爾也認爲,Netflix受益於利潤擴張的推動,這給長期利潤增長和自由現金流創造了 「不切實際」 的預期。
「Netflix的交易價格處於自22年每股收益/息稅折舊攤銷前利潤指標變得更加重要以來的最高估值差距...該公司的估值也高於預期的未來增長。」 巴克萊分析師表示。
更積極的一面是,高盛對Netflix維持中性,並將目標股價從659美元上調至705美元。儘管股票持續跑贏大盤引發了估值擔憂,但在下週業績公佈之前,高盛仍對Netflix持樂觀態度。
該分析師強調了最近的第三方數據,這些數據顯示,Netflix保持了強大的市場領導地位,這賦予了公司的定價權和較低的競爭強度。
派珀·桑德勒週一還發布了積極的最新消息。該分析公司將Netflix從中性上調至增持,並將目標股價從650美元上調至800美元,以反映該公司在流媒體領域的明顯領導地位。
派珀·桑德勒說:「值得注意的是,我們之前的中立立場以估值爲中心,但現在,我們意識到公司的昂貴是有原因的。」
這家分析公司認爲,積極的收益調整可能即將到來,這凸顯了Netflix的廣告層業務以及該公司可以在無廣告業務中發揮的多種槓桿作用。派珀·桑德勒還指出,對利潤率的共識估計可能被證明是保守的。
NFLX價格走勢:根據Benzinga Pro的數據,在撰寫本文時,Netflix股價下跌2.16%,至704.16美元。
- Netflix分析師在業績前變得更加樂觀:「昂貴是有原因的」
照片:Pixabay。