How To Successfully Trade Bitcoin's 'Bullish' Q4: 'Think In Terms Of Probabilities,' Trader Says
How To Successfully Trade Bitcoin's 'Bullish' Q4: 'Think In Terms Of Probabilities,' Trader Says
He identified the July range as a bullish range but noted that the market was consolidating below a set of equal highs on the premium side of the range.Successful Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trading is not about being bullish or bearish, but rather about understanding the probabilities of market movements, according to a prominent crypto trader.
成功的比特幣（加密：BTC）交易不是關於看好或看淡，而更多是關於理解市場走勢的概率，根據一位知名加密貨幣交易員。
What Happened: Pseudonymous trader CJ outlined in a detailed social media post that he anticipates Q4 to be largely bullish, despite the current downward trend.
發生了什麼：化名交易員CJ在一篇詳細的社交媒體帖子中指出，儘管當前趨勢下行，他預計第四季度將主要看好。
The trader pointed out that the market is simply navigating a dip before an expected upside break, saying, "Forget bullish/bearish. Think in terms of probabilities."
該交易員指出，市場只是在預期的上漲突破之前經歷短期下跌，稱"忘記看好/看淡。從概率角度思考。"
He identified the July range as a bullish range but noted that the market was consolidating below a set of equal highs on the premium side of the range.
他確定了七月區間作爲一個看好的區間，但指出市場正在該區間的高位水平下方整理。
In July, Bitcoin prices hovered around the $68,000 mark and for a majority portion of the trade remained at higher levels.
七月份，比特幣價格在68000美元左右徘徊，而在大部分交易時間裏保持在較高水平。
Also Read: Bitcoin 'Not A Safe Haven' But Rising Trump Odds Could Fuel A Rally: Standard Chartered
另請閱讀：比特幣'並非避風港'，但特朗普連任的幾率上升可能會助長一波行情：渣打銀行
Why It Matters: CJ's analysis provides a nuanced view of the Bitcoin market. He predicts a potential reversal zone at $65,000-$67,700 and suggests that the market could be much higher by November or December 2024. However, he also warned of a possible sell-off, with no real sign of strength at present.
重要性何在：CJ的分析提供了比特幣市場的細緻視角。他預測65,000-67,700美元之間可能出現逆轉區域，同時暗示市場在2024年11月或12月時可能會大幅上漲。然而，他也警告可能會出現拋售，當前沒有任何真正的強勢跡象。
"I'm thinking $56,000-$57,000 as a decent area to look for longs, but at the same time $49,000 isn't off the table," he stated. CJ believes that the market condition will definitively shift once it reclaims $70,000, but a good near-term start would be at $64,000.
「我認爲$56,000-$57,000是一個不錯的買入區間，但同時$49,000也不排除的可能性，」 他說道。CJ相信一旦重新突破$70,000，市場條件將明顯轉變，但一個良好的近期起點可能是在$64,000。”
He concluded by summarizing his current bias: for the higher time frame he expects an upside to a new all-time high by the end of the year, a downside to $56,000-$57,000 (maybe $49,000) in the medium term, and an upside from $60,000 to $62,500 in the short term.
他總結了他目前的偏好：在更高的時間框架內，他預計年底前將會上漲至新的歷史高點，中期下跌至$56,000-$57,000（也許$49,000），短期上漲至$60,000至$62,500。”
What's Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
接下來：比特幣作爲機構資產類別的影響力預計將在Benzinga即將到來的數字資產未來活動中得到徹底探討。日期是11月19日。
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Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.
該圖片使用Midjourney人工智能創建。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
