Analyst Questions 'What Could Hess Be Worth?' As Chevron Advances In Acquisition Efforts
Analyst Questions 'What Could Hess Be Worth?' As Chevron Advances In Acquisition Efforts
Hess Corporation (NYSE:HES) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) shares are trading higher on Tuesday.
美國雪佛龍公司（NYSE:CVX）和赫斯公司（NYSE:HES）股價週二上漲。
On Monday, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) completed an antitrust review of the merger of both companies, satisfying a critical closing condition for the transaction.
週一，聯邦貿易委員會（FTC）完成了對兩家公司合併的反壟斷審查，滿足了交易的一個關鍵控件。
To facilitate the merger's completion, Hess and Chevron have agreed that Hess CEO John Hess will not be on the Chevron board.
爲促進合併完成，赫斯和雪佛龍已達成協議，赫斯首席執行官約翰·赫斯不會加入雪佛龍董事會。
Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) and its partner CNOOC Ltd had earlier asserted their right of first refusal to any sale of Hess' stake in a Guyana oil-producing joint venture. The arbitration panel is expected to hear these claims in May 2025.
埃克森美孚公司（NYSE:XOM）及其合作伙伴中海油有限公司早些時候強調了他們對赫斯在圭亞那石油聯合項目的股權出售享有優先購買權。預計仲裁小組將於2025年5月聽取這些主張。
Piper Sandler analyst Ryan M. Todd raised the valuation of Guyana (net to HES) from $40.6 billion to $45.6 billion, translating to $132 to $149 per share, due to notable increases in discovered resources and productivity in Guyana.
派傑投資分析師Ryan m. Todd將圭亞那的估值（淨至HES）從406億美元提高到456億美元，每股從132美元到149美元，這是由於圭亞那已發現資源和生產率顯著增加。
The analyst estimates Hess' stand-alone value at around $170 per share with Brent priced at $75 per barrel, suggesting that Hess is a compelling value opportunity for the first time in years.
分析師估計，在基準價格爲75美元/桶的情況下，赫斯作爲獨立公司的價值約爲每股170美元，這表明多年來赫斯首次成爲了具有吸引力的投資機會。
Notably, given strong reservoir productivity and successful debottlenecking (12%-20% improvement), Todd expects each FPSO's peak productive capacity to increase from approximately 2.0 Mboe/d to around 2.5 Mboe/d.
值得注意的是，由於儲層生產力強大並且脫阻成功（提高了12%至20%），託德預計每個FPSO的峯值產能將從約2.0 Mboe/d增加到2.5 Mboe/d左右。
The analyst adds that while second-quarter production was 192 kbd (net to HES) in Guyana, they expect net production to peak at around 775 kbd, reflecting a 17% annual CAGR for nearly a decade, with peak CFO and FCF projected at $10.3 billion and $8.7 billion, respectively, vs. a $2.2 billion breakeven in 2023.
該分析師補充說，雖然圭亞那第二季度的產量爲192千桶/日（淨至HES），他們預計淨產量將在775千桶/日左右達到峯值，反映了近十年期間大約17%的年均複合增長率，預計峯值CFO和FCF分別爲103億美元和87億美元，相比之下，2023年的盈虧平衡點爲22億美元。
On the other hand, Wolfe Research analyst Doug Leggate upgraded Hess from Peer Perform to Outperform with a price target of $150.
另一方面，Wolfe研究分析師道格·萊格特將Hess的評級從同行表現升級爲表現優異，並將目標價格定爲150美元。
The bullish outlook reflects the analyst's view that current market conditions and the potential merger outcomes give Hess shares an attractive risk/reward profile, indicating that the valuation remains compelling regardless of whether the deal with Chevron proceeds.
這種看好態勢反映了分析師的觀點，即當前市場情況和潛在的併購結果使Hess股票具有有吸引力的風險/回報概況，表明該估值仍然具有吸引力，無論是否與Chevron達成交易。
Leggate cited three scenarios for Hess that support a positive outlook. The first scenario envisions the successful merger with Chevron, closing the current 11% arbitrage gap between the valuations of Hess and Chevron.
萊格特列舉了三種支持Hess積極前景的情景。第一種情景設想了與Chevron的成功合併，消除目前Hess和Chevron估值之間的11%套戥差。
If the merger fails, the analyst expects Hess to trade based on its fundamentals, with a fair value starting point projected at about $150 per share.
如果合併失敗，分析師預計Hess將基於其基本面進行交易，公平價值的起始點預計約爲每股150美元。
The third scenario examines a failed merger, indicating that Hess has shown a willingness to be acquired, with Chevron likely remaining the sole interested party, says the analyst.
第三種情況檢查了合併失敗的情況，表明Hess已表現出願意被收購的態度，且Chevron可能仍是唯一感興趣的買方，分析師表示。
Price Action: HES shares are up 1.9% at $138.38, while CVX shares rose 1.28% at $149.17 at the last check Tuesday.
價格行動：HES股價上漲1.9%，報138.38美元，而CVX股價上漲1.28%，報149.17美元，截至本週二最後一次檢查。
Image via Shutterstock
圖片來自shutterstock。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
